NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 9, 2009

Mark Martin

Winner

367

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Mark Martin won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 9, 2009, leading 46 of 367 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2009

Winner

Mark Martin

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	12	+11	Mark Martin		367	—	Running	46	190
2	42	+40	Jimmie Johnson		367	—	Running	2	175
3	18	+15	Tony Stewart		367	—	Running	1	170
4	3	-1	Ryan Newman		367	—	Running	48	165
5	2	-3	Jeff Gordon		367	—	Running	6	160
6	16	+10	Martin Truex, Jr.		367	—	Running	61	155
7	31	+24	Brad Keselowski		367	—	Running	—	146
8	11	+3	Greg Biffle		367	—	Running	117	152
9	5	-4	Joey Logano		367	—	Running	19	143
10	1	-9	Matt Kenseth		367	—	Running	16	139
11	24	+13	Kevin Harvick		367	—	Running	—	130
12	6	-6	Jeff Burton		367	—	Running	—	127
13	23	+10	Denny Hamlin		367	—	Running	—	124
14	19	+5	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	367	—	Running	2	126
15	40	+25	Paul Menard		367	—	Running	—	118
16	8	-8	Kurt Busch	Dodge	367	—	Running	—	115
17	38	+21	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	367	—	Running	—	112
18	27	+9	Bobby Labonte		367	—	Running	2	114
19	41	+22	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	367	—	Running	—	106
20	25	+5	Juan Pablo Montoya		367	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	Regan Smith		367	—	Running	—	100
22	20	-2	Jamie McMurray		367	—	Running	—	97
23	7	-16	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	366	—	Running	45	99
24	34	+10	David Stremme	Dodge	366	—	Running	—	91
25	39	+14	Tony Raines		364	—	Running	—	88
26	32	+6	Scott Speed		362	—	Running	—	85
27	26	-1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		360	—	Running	—	82
28	28	—	Robby Gordon		353	—	Running	—	79
29	21	-8	David Reutimann		347	—	Running	—	76
30	4	-26	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	344	—	Running	—	73
31	35	+4	Brian Vickers		333	—	Running	—	70
32	9	-23	Carl Edwards		314	—	Running	—	67
33	10	-23	Marcos Ambrose		312	—	Running	—	64
34	14	-20	Kyle Busch		303	—	DNF	2	66
35	22	-13	Max Papis		302	—	DNF	—	58
36	13	-23	Casey Mears		238	—	DNF	—	55
37	17	-20	Clint Bowyer		221	—	DNF	—	52
38	15	-23	David Ragan		199	—	DNF	—	49
39	37	-2	Scott Riggs		101	—	DNF	—	46
40	36	-4	Michael Waltrip		73	—	DNF	—	43
41	33	-8	Dave Blaney		56	—	DNF	—	40
42	43	+1	Sterling Marlin	Dodge	38	—	DNF	—	37
43	30	-13	David Gilliland		27	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	6	+9.4	Coinflip
7	Brad Keselowski	11.2	7	+4.2	Moderate
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
13	Denny Hamlin	8.2	13	-4.8	High Confidence
17	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	17	+1.3	Moderate
34	Kyle Busch	17.0	34	-17.0	Coinflip
36	Casey Mears	16.9	36	-19.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Mark Martin: has 76 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 29 starts, 16.0 avg finish.

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