NSCS at Watkins Glen pres. by GoDaddy.com

Watkins Glen International — August 8, 2010

Juan Pablo Montoya

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Juan Pablo Montoya won the 2010 NSCS at Watkins Glen pres. by GoDaddy.com at Watkins Glen International on August 8, 2010, leading 74 of 90 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Marcos Ambrose rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2010

Winner

Juan Pablo Montoya

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Juan Pablo Montoya		90	—	Running	74	195
2	5	+3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	170
3	11	+8	Marcos Ambrose		90	—	Running	8	170
4	4	—	A.J. Allmendinger		90	—	Running	—	160
5	1	-4	Carl Edwards		90	—	Running	—	155
6	2	-4	Jamie McMurray		90	—	Running	5	155
7	6	-1	Tony Stewart		90	—	Running	—	146
8	10	+2	Kyle Busch		90	—	Running	—	142
9	22	+13	Jeff Burton		90	—	Running	—	138
10	16	+6	Jeff Gordon		90	—	Running	—	134
11	20	+9	Kevin Harvick		90	—	Running	—	130
12	19	+7	Ryan Newman		90	—	Running	1	132
13	31	+18	Matt Kenseth		90	—	Running	—	124
14	12	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	121
15	25	+10	Martin Truex, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	118
16	23	+7	Paul Menard		90	—	Running	—	115
17	36	+19	Kasey Kahne		90	—	Running	—	112
18	33	+15	Andy Lally		90	—	Running	—	109
19	24	+5	Mark Martin		90	—	Running	2	111
20	32	+12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	103
21	17	-4	Patrick Carpentier		90	—	Running	—	100
22	28	+6	Max Papis		90	—	Running	—	97
23	30	+7	David Reutimann		90	—	Running	—	94
24	7	-17	Greg Biffle		90	—	Running	—	91
25	35	+10	David Ragan		90	—	Running	—	88
26	40	+14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	85
27	43	+16	David Gilliland		90	—	Running	—	82
28	9	-19	Jimmie Johnson		90	—	Running	—	79
29	38	+9	Elliott Sadler		90	—	Running	—	76
30	41	+11	Travis Kvapil		90	—	Running	—	73
31	42	+11	Kevin Conway		90	—	Running	—	70
32	34	+2	Clint Bowyer		89	—	Running	—	67
33	18	-15	Joey Logano		88	—	Running	—	64
34	27	-7	Regan Smith		84	—	Running	—	61
35	29	-6	Bobby Labonte		84	—	Running	—	58
36	15	-21	Robby Gordon		72	—	DNF	—	55
37	14	-23	Denny Hamlin		70	—	DNF	—	52
38	13	-25	Boris Said		65	—	DNF	—	49
39	37	-2	Joe Nemechek		54	—	DNF	—	46
40	21	-19	Ron Fellows		46	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	P.J. Jones		36	—	DNF	—	40
42	26	-16	Michael McDowell		35	—	DNF	—	37
43	8	-35	Scott Speed		28	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	4	+12.5	Coinflip
8	Kyle Busch	13.0	8	+5.0	Coinflip
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	15	+1.5	Coinflip
20	Brad Keselowski	16.7	20	-3.3	High Confidence
28	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	28	-11.3	Moderate
33	Joey Logano	12.7	33	-20.3	Moderate
37	Denny Hamlin	16.7	37	-20.3	Moderate
42	Michael McDowell	13.0	42	-29.0	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Juan Pablo Montoya: has 8 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 16.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Joey Logano: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P33 on the day.
A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 21 starts, 9.8 avg finish.

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