NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 21, 2010

Kyle Busch

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 21, 2010, leading 282 of 500 laps. David Reutimann finished second; Jamie McMurray rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	282	195
2	5	+3	David Reutimann		500	—	Running	25	175
3	7	+4	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	11	170
4	24	+20	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	1	165
5	11	+6	Kasey Kahne		500	—	Running	—	155
6	6	—	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	—	150
7	8	+1	Juan Pablo Montoya		500	—	Running	—	146
8	21	+13	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	—	142
9	20	+11	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	138
10	14	+4	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	134
11	26	+15	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	2	135
12	2	-10	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	127
13	27	+14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	124
14	28	+14	Kevin Harvick		499	—	Running	—	121
15	18	+3	Reed Sorenson		499	—	Running	—	118
16	16	—	Jeff Burton		499	—	Running	—	115
17	9	-8	Martin Truex, Jr.		499	—	Running	—	112
18	3	-15	Joey Logano		499	—	Running	—	109
19	15	-4	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	106
20	22	+2	Marcos Ambrose		499	—	Running	—	103
21	12	-9	Paul Menard		499	—	Running	—	100
22	33	+11	Travis Kvapil		498	—	Running	1	102
23	13	-10	Mark Martin		498	—	Running	1	99
24	31	+7	Jeff Green		497	—	Running	—	91
25	25	—	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	88
26	34	+8	David Gilliland		495	—	Running	—	85
27	4	-23	Tony Stewart		494	—	Running	1	87
28	39	+11	Tony Raines		492	—	Running	—	79
29	41	+12	Elliott Sadler		491	—	Running	—	76
30	29	-1	Regan Smith		489	—	Running	—	73
31	10	-21	A.J. Allmendinger		488	—	Running	—	70
32	38	+6	David Ragan		486	—	Running	—	67
33	23	-10	Scott Speed		486	—	Running	—	64
34	17	-17	Denny Hamlin		473	—	Running	—	61
35	1	-34	Jimmie Johnson		415	—	DNF	175	63
36	40	+4	Kevin Conway		212	—	DNF	—	55
37	42	+5	Landon Cassill		129	—	DNF	—	52
38	30	-8	Bobby Labonte		118	—	DNF	—	49
39	43	+4	Casey Mears		58	—	DNF	—	46
40	37	-3	Robby Gordon		50	—	DNF	—	43
41	36	-5	Todd Bodine		47	—	DNF	—	40
42	32	-10	Scott Riggs		32	—	DNF	—	37
43	35	-8	Michael McDowell		16	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 15.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	17	-3.2	Coinflip
18	Joey Logano	12.1	18	-5.9	Coinflip
19	Brad Keselowski	12.0	19	-7.0	Coinflip
31	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	31	-12.7	Moderate
34	Denny Hamlin	6.8	34	-27.2	High Confidence
35	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	35	-17.3	Moderate
39	Casey Mears	18.0	39	-21.0	Moderate
43	Michael McDowell	15.0	43	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 73 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P34 on the day.

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