Bank of America 500 at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 16, 2010

Jamie McMurray

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jamie McMurray won the 2010 Bank of America 500 at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 16, 2010, leading 65 of 334 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 19 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Jamie McMurray

Leaders

19 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	27	+26	Jamie McMurray		334	—	Running	65	190
2	6	+4	Kyle Busch		334	—	Running	217	180
3	10	+7	Jimmie Johnson		334	—	Running	15	170
4	23	+19	Denny Hamlin		334	—	Running	1	165
5	22	+17	Greg Biffle		334	—	Running	1	160
6	17	+11	Matt Kenseth		334	—	Running	1	155
7	12	+5	Joey Logano		334	—	Running	1	151
8	24	+16	Kevin Harvick		334	—	Running	1	147
9	16	+7	David Reutimann		334	—	Running	—	138
10	26	+16	David Ragan		334	—	Running	—	134
11	34	+23	Juan Pablo Montoya		334	—	Running	2	135
12	2	-10	Carl Edwards		334	—	Running	2	132
13	32	+19	Regan Smith		334	—	Running	—	124
14	4	-10	Mark Martin		334	—	Running	9	126
15	13	-2	Martin Truex, Jr.		334	—	Running	—	118
16	14	-2	Marcos Ambrose		334	—	Running	—	115
17	20	+3	Clint Bowyer		334	—	Running	1	117
18	7	-11	Reed Sorenson		334	—	Running	1	114
19	21	+2	Scott Speed		334	—	Running	—	106
20	18	-2	Jeff Burton		334	—	Running	1	108
21	29	+8	Tony Stewart		334	—	Running	—	100
22	30	+8	Bobby Labonte		333	—	Running	—	97
23	1	-22	Jeff Gordon		333	—	Running	7	99
24	5	-19	Paul Menard		333	—	Running	—	91
25	3	-22	A.J. Allmendinger		333	—	Running	5	93
26	9	-17	Elliott Sadler		332	—	Running	—	85
27	31	+4	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	332	—	Running	—	82
28	36	+8	David Gilliland		332	—	Running	1	84
29	8	-21	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		331	—	Running	—	76
30	15	-15	Kurt Busch	Dodge	331	—	Running	—	73
31	42	+11	Travis Kvapil		331	—	Running	—	70
32	41	+9	Dave Blaney		331	—	Running	—	67
33	39	+6	Robby Gordon		327	—	Running	—	64
34	38	+4	Andy Lally		315	—	Running	—	61
35	37	+2	Bill Elliott		305	—	Running	—	58
36	11	-25	Ryan Newman		272	—	DNF	—	55
37	35	-2	Patrick Carpentier		217	—	DNF	1	57
38	25	-13	Kasey Kahne		214	—	DNF	—	49
39	33	-6	Michael McDowell		127	—	DNF	2	51
40	19	-21	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	122	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Jeff Green		91	—	DNF	—	40
42	28	-14	Landon Cassill		89	—	DNF	—	37
43	40	-3	J.J. Yeley		73	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
4	Denny Hamlin	8.2	4	+4.2	High Confidence
7	Joey Logano	14.7	7	+7.7	Coinflip
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	15	+0.4	Coinflip
25	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	25	-6.7	Moderate
27	Brad Keselowski	11.2	27	-15.8	Moderate
39	Michael McDowell	17.0	39	-22.0	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	28.8	43	-14.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jamie McMurray: has 35 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 18.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 19.1 avg finish.

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