NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 24, 2010

Denny Hamlin

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 24, 2010, leading 40 of 500 laps. Mark Martin finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	40	190
2	21	+19	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	170
3	36	+33	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	97	170
4	26	+22	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	—	160
5	19	+14	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	—	155
6	22	+16	Joey Logano		500	—	Running	—	150
7	28	+21	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	90	151
8	7	-1	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	142
9	18	+9	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	134	148
10	25	+15	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	134
11	9	-2	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	130
12	15	+3	A.J. Allmendinger		500	—	Running	—	127
13	12	-1	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	124
14	33	+19	Kasey Kahne		500	—	Running	—	121
15	32	+17	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	118
16	29	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	115
17	10	-7	David Ragan		499	—	Running	—	112
18	38	+20	Ken Schrader		499	—	Running	7	114
19	5	-14	Juan Pablo Montoya		499	—	Running	—	106
20	11	-9	Jeff Gordon		498	—	Running	56	108
21	35	+14	Aric Almirola		498	—	Running	—	100
22	41	+19	Robby Gordon		498	—	Running	1	102
23	14	-9	Scott Speed		498	—	Running	—	94
24	6	-18	Tony Stewart		498	—	Running	1	96
25	24	-1	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	496	—	Running	—	88
26	42	+16	Hermie Sadler		496	—	Running	—	85
27	8	-19	David Reutimann		494	—	Running	1	87
28	31	+3	Elliott Sadler		474	—	Running	—	79
29	16	-13	Martin Truex, Jr.		473	—	Running	—	76
30	4	-26	Ryan Newman		455	—	Running	32	78
31	13	-18	Regan Smith		442	—	Running	—	70
32	40	+8	Tony Raines		437	—	Running	—	67
33	3	-30	Greg Biffle		432	—	Running	—	64
34	2	-32	Marcos Ambrose		428	—	Running	40	66
35	27	-8	Travis Kvapil		423	—	DNF	—	58
36	34	-2	Dave Blaney		418	—	DNF	—	55
37	39	+2	David Gilliland		382	—	DNF	—	52
38	17	-21	Clint Bowyer		359	—	DNF	—	49
39	43	+4	J.J. Yeley	Dodge	282	—	DNF	—	46
40	20	-20	Casey Mears		271	—	DNF	1	48
41	37	-4	Joe Nemechek		264	—	DNF	—	40
42	30	-12	Landon Cassill		200	—	DNF	—	37
43	23	-20	Bobby Labonte		197	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	6.8	1	+5.8	High Confidence
4	Kyle Busch	15.6	4	+11.6	Coinflip
5	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	5	+12.7	Moderate
6	Joey Logano	12.1	6	+6.1	Coinflip
10	Brad Keselowski	12.0	10	+2.0	Coinflip
12	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	12	+6.3	Moderate
29	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	29	-15.2	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.1	39	-10.9	High Confidence
40	Casey Mears	18.0	40	-22.0	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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