NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — October 3, 2010

Greg Biffle

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Greg Biffle won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on October 3, 2010, leading 60 of 267 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Greg Biffle

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	60	190
2	21	+19	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	—	170
3	24	+21	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	16	170
4	14	+10	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	76	170
5	3	-2	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	29	160
6	31	+25	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	2	155
7	8	+1	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	26	151
8	2	-6	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	11	147
9	6	-3	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	138
10	30	+20	A.J. Allmendinger		267	—	Running	—	134
11	22	+11	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	7	135
12	12	—	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	127
13	9	-4	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	124
14	28	+14	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	121
15	27	+12	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	118
16	10	-6	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	115
17	4	-13	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	112
18	23	+5	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	2	114
19	33	+14	Scott Speed		267	—	Running	—	106
20	25	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	103
21	19	-2	Kyle Busch		266	—	Running	—	100
22	20	-2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		266	—	Running	—	97
23	26	+3	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	94
24	37	+13	Casey Mears		266	—	Running	—	91
25	11	-14	Bill Elliott		266	—	Running	—	88
26	13	-13	Regan Smith		266	—	Running	—	85
27	36	+9	Patrick Carpentier		266	—	Running	10	87
28	15	-13	Elliott Sadler		266	—	Running	—	79
29	7	-22	Juan Pablo Montoya		266	—	Running	—	76
30	34	+4	Reed Sorenson		265	—	Running	—	73
31	43	+12	Dave Blaney		261	—	Running	—	70
32	38	+6	David Gilliland		261	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	Travis Kvapil		261	—	Running	—	64
34	32	-2	Marcos Ambrose		257	—	Running	—	61
35	16	-19	David Reutimann		256	—	Running	—	58
36	18	-18	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	245	—	Running	—	55
37	1	-36	Kasey Kahne		218	—	DNF	27	57
38	41	+3	Kevin Conway		180	—	DNF	—	49
39	42	+3	Tony Raines		87	—	DNF	—	46
40	29	-11	Michael McDowell		60	—	DNF	1	48
41	17	-24	Bobby Labonte		58	—	DNF	—	40
42	39	-3	J.J. Yeley		49	—	DNF	—	37
43	35	-8	Landon Cassill		33	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
10	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	10	+8.3	Moderate
12	Denny Hamlin	8.2	12	-3.8	High Confidence
17	Joey Logano	14.7	17	-2.3	Coinflip
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	20	-4.6	Coinflip
21	Kyle Busch	17.0	21	-4.0	Coinflip
23	Brad Keselowski	11.2	23	-11.8	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	16.9	24	-7.1	Coinflip
40	Michael McDowell	17.0	40	-23.0	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	28.8	42	-13.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Greg Biffle: has 30 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 10.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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