NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 27, 2011

Brad Keselowski

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 27, 2011, leading 89 of 500 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	8	+7	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	89	47
2	27	+25	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	5	43
3	4	+1	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	206	43
4	13	+9	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	76	41
5	6	+1	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	2	40
6	3	-3	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	110	39
7	20	+13	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	—	37
8	1	-7	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	4	37
9	2	-7	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	35
10	11	+1	Marcos Ambrose		500	—	Running	—	34
11	25	+14	Kasey Kahne		500	—	Running	—	33
12	18	+6	A.J. Allmendinger		500	—	Running	—	32
13	9	-4	Joey Logano		500	—	Running	2	32
14	23	+9	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	4	31
15	21	+6	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	29
16	22	+6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	28
17	10	-7	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	27
18	12	-6	Regan Smith		500	—	Running	—	26
19	19	—	Juan Pablo Montoya		500	—	Running	—	25
20	24	+4	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	24
21	26	+5	Brian Vickers		499	—	Running	—	23
22	15	-7	Kevin Harvick		499	—	Running	—	22
23	29	+6	Casey Mears		499	—	Running	—	21
24	17	-7	David Gilliland		498	—	Running	—	20
25	38	+13	Andy Lally		498	—	Running	—	19
26	16	-10	Clint Bowyer		498	—	Running	—	18
27	37	+10	David Starr		497	—	Running	2	0
28	42	+14	Tony Stewart		497	—	Running	—	16
29	40	+11	Mike Bliss		497	—	Running	—	0
30	7	-23	Paul Menard		496	—	Running	—	14
31	14	-17	Greg Biffle		496	—	Running	—	13
32	31	-1	David Stremme		494	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Terry Labonte		494	—	Running	—	11
34	30	-4	Bobby Labonte		471	—	Running	—	10
35	35	—	Dave Blaney		457	—	Running	—	9
36	34	-2	David Reutimann		430	—	Running	—	8
37	33	-4	Travis Kvapil		371	—	DNF	—	0
38	5	-33	Mark Martin		363	—	DNF	—	6
39	32	-7	Michael McDowell		49	—	DNF	—	5
40	28	-12	Joe Nemechek		42	—	DNF	—	0
41	43	+2	Mike Skinner		28	—	DNF	—	0
42	36	-6	Scott Speed		28	—	DNF	—	0
43	39	-4	Robby Gordon	Dodge	10	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	12.0	1	+11.0	Coinflip
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	2	+11.8	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	4	+13.7	Moderate
7	Denny Hamlin	6.8	7	-0.2	High Confidence
12	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	12	+6.3	Moderate
13	Joey Logano	12.1	13	-0.9	Coinflip
14	Kyle Busch	15.6	14	+1.6	Coinflip
23	Casey Mears	18.0	23	-5.0	Moderate
27	David Starr	20.2	27	-6.8	Moderate
39	Michael McDowell	15.0	39	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 45 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

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