NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 27, 2012

Kasey Kahne

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kasey Kahne won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 27, 2012, leading 96 of 400 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Kasey Kahne

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Kasey Kahne		400	—	Running	96	47
2	8	+6	Denny Hamlin		400	—	Running	13	43
3	17	+14	Kyle Busch		400	—	Running	55	42
4	4	—	Greg Biffle		400	—	Running	204	42
5	24	+19	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	400	—	Running	1	40
6	12	+6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		400	—	Running	—	38
7	23	+16	Jeff Gordon		400	—	Running	5	38
8	14	+6	Kevin Harvick		400	—	Running	1	37
9	28	+19	Carl Edwards		400	—	Running	—	35
10	20	+10	Matt Kenseth		399	—	Running	—	34
11	3	-8	Jimmie Johnson		399	—	Running	—	33
12	15	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.		399	—	Running	—	32
13	5	-8	Clint Bowyer		398	—	Running	—	31
14	16	+2	Ryan Newman		398	—	Running	—	30
15	9	-6	Paul Menard		398	—	Running	—	29
16	1	-15	Aric Almirola		398	—	Running	3	29
17	10	-7	Regan Smith		398	—	Running	—	27
18	18	—	Landon Cassill		398	—	Running	1	27
19	22	+3	Jeff Burton		398	—	Running	—	25
20	29	+9	Juan Pablo Montoya		398	—	Running	—	24
21	31	+10	Jamie McMurray		397	—	Running	—	23
22	25	+3	Casey Mears		397	—	Running	—	22
23	19	-4	Joey Logano		397	—	Running	—	21
24	13	-11	Trevor Bayne		397	—	Running	—	0
25	21	-4	Tony Stewart		397	—	Running	—	19
26	39	+13	David Gilliland		397	—	Running	—	18
27	42	+15	Kurt Busch		396	—	Running	—	17
28	26	-2	Bobby Labonte		396	—	Running	—	16
29	37	+8	Travis Kvapil		395	—	Running	—	15
30	40	+10	Danica Patrick		395	—	Running	—	0
31	41	+10	T.J. Bell		390	—	Running	—	0
32	2	-30	Marcos Ambrose		367	—	Running	20	13
33	11	-22	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	361	—	Running	—	11
34	6	-28	Mark Martin		338	—	DNF	—	10
35	30	-5	David Ragan		281	—	DNF	1	10
36	32	-4	Michael McDowell		228	—	DNF	—	8
37	38	+1	Scott Speed		136	—	DNF	—	7
38	35	-3	David Stremme		86	—	DNF	—	6
39	34	-5	Stephen Leicht		74	—	DNF	—	5
40	36	-4	Dave Blaney		54	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Joe Nemechek		47	—	DNF	—	0
42	27	-15	Cole Whitt		33	—	DNF	—	0
43	33	-10	Josh Wise		15	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	8.2	2	+6.2	High Confidence
3	Kyle Busch	17.0	3	+14.0	Coinflip
5	Brad Keselowski	11.2	5	+6.2	Moderate
11	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	11	+8.9	Moderate
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
22	Casey Mears	16.9	22	-5.1	Coinflip
23	Joey Logano	14.7	23	-8.3	Coinflip
33	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	33	-14.7	Moderate
36	Michael McDowell	17.0	36	-19.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kasey Kahne: has 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 15.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 68 starts, 8.4 avg finish.

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