NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — May 6, 2012

Brad Keselowski

Winner

194

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on May 6, 2012, leading 10 of 194 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2012

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

17 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	194	—	Running	10	47
2	21	+19	Kyle Busch		194	—	Running	1	43
3	10	+7	Matt Kenseth		194	—	Running	67	43
4	5	+1	Kasey Kahne		194	—	Running	11	41
5	6	+1	Greg Biffle		194	—	Running	15	40
6	24	+18	Clint Bowyer		194	—	Running	—	38
7	32	+25	David Ragan		194	—	Running	—	37
8	11	+3	Trevor Bayne		194	—	Running	—	0
9	18	+9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		194	—	Running	10	36
10	29	+19	Jeff Burton		194	—	Running	3	35
11	23	+12	Jamie McMurray		194	—	Running	—	33
12	4	-8	Aric Almirola		194	—	Running	—	32
13	26	+13	David Gilliland		194	—	Running	—	31
14	3	-11	Marcos Ambrose		194	—	Running	—	30
15	2	-13	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	194	—	Running	—	29
16	41	+25	Travis Kvapil		194	—	Running	1	29
17	17	—	Paul Menard		194	—	Running	5	28
18	25	+7	Casey Mears		194	—	Running	2	27
19	9	-10	Michael Waltrip		194	—	Running	21	26
20	33	+13	Kurt Busch		193	—	Running	15	25
21	42	+21	Bobby Labonte		192	—	Running	—	23
22	34	+12	David Reutimann		192	—	Running	—	22
23	22	-1	Denny Hamlin		192	—	Running	8	22
24	8	-16	Tony Stewart		190	—	Running	16	21
25	20	-5	Kevin Harvick		184	—	Running	1	20
26	30	+4	Joey Logano		184	—	Running	—	18
27	39	+12	Robert Richardson Jr.		182	—	Running	—	0
28	15	-13	Martin Truex, Jr.		166	—	Running	—	16
29	28	-1	Terry Labonte		143	—	DNF	—	15
30	38	+8	Dave Blaney		142	—	DNF	—	14
31	7	-24	Carl Edwards		142	—	DNF	—	13
32	12	-20	Juan Pablo Montoya		142	—	DNF	3	13
33	1	-32	Jeff Gordon		142	—	DNF	—	11
34	40	+6	Landon Cassill		141	—	DNF	—	10
35	19	-16	Jimmie Johnson		61	—	DNF	5	10
36	14	-22	Ryan Newman		42	—	DNF	—	8
37	36	-1	Bill Elliott		37	—	DNF	—	7
38	43	+5	Tony Raines		32	—	DNF	—	6
39	27	-12	David Stremme		30	—	DNF	—	5
40	31	-9	Regan Smith		15	—	DNF	—	4
41	37	-4	Joe Nemechek		7	—	DNF	—	0
42	16	-26	Josh Wise		5	—	DNF	—	2
43	35	-8	Michael McDowell		2	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	16.0	1	+15.0	Coinflip
2	Kyle Busch	15.1	2	+13.1	Coinflip
15	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	15	+5.1	Moderate
18	Casey Mears	18.5	18	+0.5	Coinflip
23	Denny Hamlin	16.0	23	-7.0	Coinflip
26	Joey Logano	20.5	26	-5.5	Moderate
28	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	28	-7.9	Coinflip
35	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	35	-16.1	Coinflip
43	Michael McDowell	20.0	43	-23.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P2 on the day.

Track Preview →