NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 25, 2014

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 25, 2014, leading 164 of 400 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jimmie Johnson	400	—	Running	164	48
2	11	+9	Kevin Harvick	400	—	Running	100	43
3	12	+9	Matt Kenseth	400	—	Running	33	42
4	22	+18	Carl Edwards	400	—	Running	4	41
5	26	+21	Jamie McMurray	400	—	Running	34	40
6	16	+10	Brian Vickers	400	—	Running	—	38
7	27	+20	Jeff Gordon	400	—	Running	8	38
8	21	+13	Paul Menard	400	—	Running	—	36
9	7	-2	Kyle Busch	400	—	Running	—	35
10	2	-8	Brad Keselowski	400	—	Running	43	35
11	13	+2	Aric Almirola	400	—	Running	1	34
12	8	-4	Joey Logano	400	—	Running	—	32
13	18	+5	Tony Stewart	400	—	Running	—	31
14	3	-11	Kasey Kahne	399	—	Running	—	30
15	42	+27	Ryan Newman	399	—	Running	—	29
16	32	+16	Austin Dillon	399	—	Running	—	28
17	5	-12	Clint Bowyer	399	—	Running	—	27
18	25	+7	Kyle Larson	398	—	Running	—	26
19	10	-9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	398	—	Running	13	26
20	14	-6	Trevor Bayne	398	—	Running	—	0
21	24	+3	Greg Biffle	398	—	Running	—	23
22	6	-16	Denny Hamlin	398	—	Running	—	22
23	20	-3	A.J. Allmendinger	398	—	Running	—	21
24	34	+10	Casey Mears	398	—	Running	—	20
25	15	-10	Martin Truex, Jr.	398	—	Running	—	19
26	23	-3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	397	—	Running	—	18
27	31	+4	Cole Whitt	397	—	Running	—	17
28	39	+11	Michael Annett	396	—	Running	—	16
29	9	-20	Marcos Ambrose	396	—	Running	—	15
30	30	—	Michael McDowell	396	—	Running	—	14
31	35	+4	David Ragan	395	—	Running	—	13
32	19	-13	Brian Scott	395	—	Running	—	0
33	29	-4	Alex Bowman	392	—	Running	—	11
34	38	+4	Joe Nemechek	390	—	Running	—	0
35	43	+8	Blake Koch	390	—	Running	—	0
36	40	+4	Landon Cassill	382	—	Running	—	0
37	17	-20	Justin Allgaier	378	—	Running	—	7
38	36	-2	Ryan Truex	303	—	DNF	—	6
39	4	-35	Danica Patrick	281	—	DNF	—	5
40	28	-12	Kurt Busch	271	—	DNF	—	4
41	37	-4	Josh Wise	229	—	DNF	—	3
42	41	-1	Reed Sorenson	162	—	DNF	—	2
43	33	-10	David Gilliland	160	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
9	Kyle Busch	17.0	9	+8.0	Coinflip
10	Brad Keselowski	11.2	10	+1.2	Moderate
12	Joey Logano	14.7	12	+2.7	Coinflip
16	Austin Dillon	17.1	16	+1.1	Coinflip
18	Kyle Larson	12.7	18	-5.3	Coinflip
22	Denny Hamlin	8.2	22	-13.8	High Confidence
23	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	23	-4.7	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	16.9	24	-7.1	Coinflip
25	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	25	-9.6	Coinflip
26	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	26	-6.1	Moderate
30	Michael McDowell	17.0	30	-13.0	Coinflip
33	Alex Bowman	13.5	33	-19.5	Coinflip
37	Justin Allgaier	18.3	37	-18.7	Coinflip
38	Ryan Truex	15.4	38	-22.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 37 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 19.1 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P22 on the day.

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