NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 15, 2014

Matt Kenseth
Winner
206
Laps
40
Entries
10
Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 15, 2014, leading 52 of 206 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Season
2014
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Matt Kenseth
2 6 +4 Kyle Busch
3 2 -1 Kyle Larson
4 5 +1 Ryan Blaney
5 10 +5 Chris Buescher
6 15 +9 Regan Smith
7 21 +14 Ty Dillon
8 1 -7 Brad Keselowski
9 4 -5 Elliott Sadler
10 7 -3 Brian Scott
11 13 +2 Trevor Bayne
12 31 +19 Paul Menard
13 20 +7 Jeremy Clements
14 25 +11 Ross Chastain
15 30 +15 T.J. Bell
16 17 +1 J.J. Yeley
17 14 -3 Chase Elliott
18 24 +6 James Buescher
19 9 -10 Dylan Kwasniewski
20 19 -1 Dakoda Armstrong
21 28 +7 Jeffrey Earnhardt
22 22 Blake Koch
23 18 -5 Mike Bliss
24 35 +11 Jake Crum
25 12 -13 Josh Berry
26 27 +1 Eric McClure
27 11 -16 Ryan Reed
28 33 +5 Ryan Preece
29 8 -21 Brendan Gaughan
30 29 -1 David Starr
31 40 +9 Tanner Berryhill
32 37 +5 Carlos Contreras
33 26 -7 John Wes Townley
34 39 +5 Milka Duno
35 23 -12 Landon Cassill
36 32 -4 Ryan Sieg
37 16 -21 Corey LaJoie
38 36 -2 Matt DiBenedetto
39 38 -1 Joey Gase
40 34 -6 Jeff Green
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
2 Kyle Busch 17.0 2 +15.0
3 Kyle Larson 12.7 3 +9.7
4 Ryan Blaney 9.2 4 +5.2
5 Chris Buescher 9.2 5 +4.2
7 Ty Dillon 23.4 7 +16.4
8 Brad Keselowski 11.2 8 +3.2
14 Ross Chastain 13.3 14 -0.7
16 J.J. Yeley 28.8 16 +12.8
17 Chase Elliott 7.8 17 -9.2
25 Josh Berry 22.9 25 -2.1
28 Ryan Preece 10.1 28 -17.9
30 David Starr 20.9 30 -9.1
37 Corey LaJoie 22.2 37 -14.8
39 Joey Gase 23.4 39 -15.6

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Matt Kenseth: has 32 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.4 avg finish, finishing P17 on the day.
  • Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P23. Track history: 12 starts, 16.8 avg finish.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami?
Matt Kenseth won the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami held?
The 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series at Homestead-Miami was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 15, 2014.