NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON

Darlington Raceway — September 5, 2015

Denny Hamlin

Winner

147

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway on September 5, 2015, leading 117 of 147 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2015

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

3 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Denny Hamlin		147	—	Running	117	0
2	36	+34	Kyle Busch		147	—	Running	—	0
3	2	-1	Daniel Suarez		147	—	Running	14	42
4	9	+5	Kevin Harvick		147	—	Running	16	0
5	10	+5	Chris Buescher		147	—	Running	—	39
6	4	-2	Joey Logano		147	—	Running	—	0
7	3	-4	Kyle Larson		147	—	Running	—	0
8	19	+11	Landon Cassill		147	—	Running	—	36
9	8	-1	Regan Smith		147	—	Running	—	35
10	14	+4	Ross Chastain		147	—	Running	—	34
11	24	+13	Elliott Sadler		147	—	Running	—	33
12	12	—	Brian Scott		146	—	Running	—	32
13	6	-7	Brendan Gaughan		146	—	Running	—	31
14	15	+1	Bubba Wallace		146	—	Running	—	30
15	13	-2	Ty Dillon		146	—	Running	—	29
16	11	-5	J.J. Yeley		146	—	Running	—	28
17	18	+1	Ryan Sieg		146	—	Running	—	27
18	26	+8	Dakoda Armstrong		146	—	Running	—	26
19	21	+2	Cale Conley		146	—	Running	—	25
20	16	-4	Jeremy Clements		145	—	Running	—	24
21	20	-1	Parker Kligerman		145	—	Running	—	23
22	25	+3	David Starr		145	—	Running	—	22
23	17	-6	Ryan Reed		145	—	Running	—	21
24	7	-17	Chase Elliott		144	—	Running	—	20
25	5	-20	Paul Menard		144	—	Running	—	0
26	23	-3	John Wes Townley		144	—	Running	—	0
27	22	-5	Blake Koch		143	—	Running	—	17
28	33	+5	Eric McClure		142	—	Running	—	16
29	28	-1	Todd Bodine		141	—	Running	—	15
30	32	+2	Joey Gase		141	—	Running	—	14
31	31	—	B.J. McLeod	Dodge	138	—	Running	—	0
32	30	-2	Derrike Cope		134	—	Running	—	12
33	35	+2	Harrison Rhodes		83	—	DNF	—	11
34	38	+4	Mike Harmon	Dodge	82	—	DNF	—	10
35	34	-1	Morgan Shepherd		34	—	DNF	—	9
36	27	-9	T.J. Bell		23	—	DNF	—	0
37	37	—	Carlos Contreras		10	—	DNF	—	7
38	29	-9	Jeff Green		6	—	DNF	—	6
39	39	—	Carl Long		4	—	DNF	—	5
40	40	—	Ryan Ellis		1	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
3	Daniel Suarez	14.0	3	+11.0	Coinflip
5	Chris Buescher	9.2	5	+4.2	High Confidence
6	Joey Logano	14.7	6	+8.7	Coinflip
7	Kyle Larson	12.7	7	+5.7	Coinflip
10	Ross Chastain	13.3	10	+3.3	Coinflip
14	Bubba Wallace	12.7	14	-1.3	Coinflip
15	Ty Dillon	23.4	15	+8.4	High Confidence
16	J.J. Yeley	28.8	16	+12.8	High Confidence
22	David Starr	20.9	22	-1.1	Moderate
24	Chase Elliott	7.8	24	-16.2	High Confidence
30	Joey Gase	23.4	30	-6.6	High Confidence
31	B.J. McLeod	24.8	31	-6.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P24 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 42 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON?

Denny Hamlin won the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway.

Where was the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON held?

The 2015 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON was held at Darlington Raceway on September 5, 2015.