NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL

Bristol Motor Speedway — April 17, 2016

Carl Edwards

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 17, 2016, leading 276 of 500 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	276	45
2	20	+18	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	39
3	26	+23	Kurt Busch	500	—	Running	41	39
4	19	+15	Chase Elliott	500	—	Running	—	37
5	10	+5	Trevor Bayne	500	—	Running	—	36
6	30	+24	Matt DiBenedetto	500	—	Running	—	35
7	7	—	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	13	35
8	36	+28	Clint Bowyer	500	—	Running	—	33
9	17	+8	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	32
10	3	-7	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	4	32
11	18	+7	Ryan Blaney	500	—	Running	—	30
12	23	+11	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	—	29
13	13	—	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	—	28
14	8	-6	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	27
15	14	-1	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	4	27
16	32	+16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	500	—	Running	—	25
17	11	-6	Kasey Kahne	500	—	Running	—	24
18	12	-6	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	—	23
19	9	-10	A.J. Allmendinger	500	—	Running	—	22
20	4	-16	Denny Hamlin	500	—	Running	—	21
21	21	—	Chris Buescher	500	—	Running	—	20
22	28	+6	Landon Cassill	500	—	Running	20	20
23	6	-17	Jimmie Johnson	499	—	Running	—	18
24	16	-8	Casey Mears	499	—	Running	—	17
25	34	+9	Ty Dillon	499	—	Running	—	0
26	15	-11	Austin Dillon	498	—	Running	—	15
27	33	+6	Danica Patrick	498	—	Running	—	14
28	39	+11	Cole Whitt	496	—	Running	—	13
29	31	+2	Michael McDowell	495	—	Running	—	12
30	27	-3	Brian Scott	493	—	Running	—	11
31	40	+9	Michael Annett	492	—	Running	—	10
32	37	+5	Jeffrey Earnhardt	488	—	Running	—	9
33	35	+2	Josh Wise	482	—	Running	—	8
34	22	-12	Aric Almirola	479	—	Running	—	7
35	25	-10	Kyle Larson	462	—	Running	—	6
36	2	-34	Matt Kenseth	460	—	Running	142	6
37	29	-8	Regan Smith	451	—	Running	—	4
38	5	-33	Kyle Busch	258	—	DNF	—	3
39	24	-15	David Ragan	211	—	DNF	—	2
40	38	-2	Reed Sorenson	169	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Chase Elliott	8.3	4	+4.3	High Confidence
10	Joey Logano	12.1	10	+2.1	Coinflip
11	Ryan Blaney	6.8	11	-4.2	High Confidence
14	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	14	-0.2	Coinflip
16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	16	+4.1	Moderate
18	Brad Keselowski	12.0	18	-6.0	Coinflip
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
20	Denny Hamlin	6.8	20	-13.2	High Confidence
21	Chris Buescher	10.3	21	-10.7	Moderate
23	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	23	-5.3	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	18.0	24	-6.0	Moderate
25	Ty Dillon	24.3	25	-0.7	High Confidence
26	Austin Dillon	17.0	26	-9.0	Coinflip
29	Michael McDowell	15.0	29	-14.0	Coinflip
35	Kyle Larson	8.6	35	-26.4	Moderate
38	Kyle Busch	15.6	38	-22.4	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 38 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.0 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P11 on the day.

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