NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHARLOTTE

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 29, 2016

Martin Truex, Jr.

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 29, 2016, leading 392 of 400 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 29, 2016

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Martin Truex, Jr.

Leaders

4 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Martin Truex, Jr.	400	—	Running	392	45
2	8	+6	Kevin Harvick	400	—	Running	—	39
3	7	+4	Jimmie Johnson	400	—	Running	5	39
4	4	—	Denny Hamlin	400	—	Running	—	37
5	5	—	Brad Keselowski	400	—	Running	—	36
6	13	+7	Kurt Busch	400	—	Running	—	35
7	27	+20	Matt Kenseth	400	—	Running	—	34
8	12	+4	Chase Elliott	400	—	Running	—	33
9	2	-7	Joey Logano	400	—	Running	1	33
10	14	+4	Ryan Newman	400	—	Running	—	31
11	6	-5	Greg Biffle	400	—	Running	—	30
12	28	+16	Austin Dillon	400	—	Running	—	29
13	24	+11	Kyle Larson	400	—	Running	—	28
14	25	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	400	—	Running	—	27
15	3	-12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	400	—	Running	—	26
16	15	-1	A.J. Allmendinger	399	—	Running	—	25
17	11	-6	Paul Menard	399	—	Running	2	25
18	9	-9	Carl Edwards	399	—	Running	—	23
19	23	+4	Jamie McMurray	399	—	Running	—	22
20	18	-2	Ryan Blaney	397	—	Running	—	21
21	19	-2	Danica Patrick	396	—	Running	—	20
22	29	+7	Kasey Kahne	395	—	Running	—	19
23	26	+3	Clint Bowyer	395	—	Running	—	18
24	21	-3	Tony Stewart	395	—	Running	—	17
25	10	-15	Trevor Bayne	395	—	Running	—	16
26	20	-6	Aric Almirola	395	—	Running	—	15
27	33	+6	Landon Cassill	395	—	Running	—	14
28	31	+3	Regan Smith	395	—	Running	—	13
29	30	+1	Brian Scott	394	—	Running	—	12
30	17	-13	Casey Mears	394	—	Running	—	11
31	35	+4	David Ragan	393	—	Running	—	10
32	34	+2	Matt DiBenedetto	393	—	Running	—	9
33	16	-17	Kyle Busch	392	—	Running	—	8
34	32	-2	Michael McDowell	391	—	Running	—	7
35	36	+1	Cole Whitt	391	—	Running	—	6
36	38	+2	Michael Annett	390	—	Running	—	5
37	22	-15	Chris Buescher	388	—	Running	—	4
38	37	-1	Josh Wise	387	—	Running	—	3
39	39	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	382	—	Running	—	2
40	40	—	Reed Sorenson	200	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	1	+14.4	Coinflip
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
4	Denny Hamlin	8.2	4	+4.2	High Confidence
5	Brad Keselowski	11.2	5	+6.2	Moderate
8	Chase Elliott	7.8	8	-0.2	High Confidence
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
12	Austin Dillon	17.1	12	+5.1	Coinflip
13	Kyle Larson	12.7	13	-0.3	Coinflip
15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
16	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	16	+2.3	Moderate
20	Ryan Blaney	9.2	20	-10.8	High Confidence
30	Casey Mears	16.9	30	-13.1	Coinflip
33	Kyle Busch	17.0	33	-16.0	Coinflip
34	Michael McDowell	17.0	34	-17.0	Coinflip
37	Chris Buescher	9.2	37	-27.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Martin Truex, Jr.: has 25 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P8 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 19.1 avg finish.

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