NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHARLOTTE

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 8, 2016

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 8, 2016, leading 155 of 334 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	11	+10	Jimmie Johnson	334	—	Running	155	45
2	17	+15	Matt Kenseth	334	—	Running	5	40
3	12	+9	Kasey Kahne	334	—	Running	—	38
4	21	+17	Ryan Newman	334	—	Running	1	38
5	25	+20	Kyle Larson	334	—	Running	—	36
6	4	-2	Kyle Busch	334	—	Running	1	36
7	20	+13	Brad Keselowski	334	—	Running	—	34
8	23	+15	Kurt Busch	334	—	Running	—	33
9	5	-4	Tony Stewart	334	—	Running	—	32
10	16	+6	Jamie McMurray	334	—	Running	—	31
11	13	+2	Danica Patrick	334	—	Running	—	30
12	8	-4	Carl Edwards	334	—	Running	—	29
13	7	-6	Martin Truex, Jr.	334	—	Running	—	28
14	22	+8	Michael McDowell	334	—	Running	—	27
15	33	+18	Aric Almirola	334	—	Running	—	26
16	26	+10	Chris Buescher	334	—	Running	—	25
17	31	+14	Clint Bowyer	334	—	Running	2	25
18	27	+9	Trevor Bayne	334	—	Running	—	23
19	32	+13	Landon Cassill	334	—	Running	—	22
20	15	-5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	333	—	Running	—	21
21	35	+14	Regan Smith	333	—	Running	—	20
22	30	+8	Brian Scott	333	—	Running	—	19
23	34	+11	David Ragan	331	—	Running	—	18
24	37	+13	Michael Annett	330	—	Running	—	17
25	24	-1	Matt DiBenedetto	329	—	Running	—	16
26	38	+12	Jeffrey Earnhardt	328	—	Running	—	15
27	36	+9	Cole Whitt	327	—	Running	—	14
28	39	+11	Reed Sorenson	321	—	Running	—	13
29	40	+11	Josh Wise	320	—	Running	—	12
30	9	-21	Denny Hamlin	308	—	Running	52	12
31	18	-13	Ryan Blaney	307	—	Running	—	10
32	19	-13	Austin Dillon	258	—	DNF	—	9
33	3	-30	Chase Elliott	258	—	DNF	103	9
34	28	-6	Paul Menard	258	—	DNF	—	7
35	14	-21	Greg Biffle	257	—	DNF	—	6
36	10	-26	Joey Logano	254	—	DNF	3	6
37	6	-31	A.J. Allmendinger	252	—	DNF	—	4
38	1	-37	Kevin Harvick	155	—	DNF	12	4
39	2	-37	Alex Bowman	61	—	DNF	—	0
40	29	-11	Casey Mears	61	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 14.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
5	Kyle Larson	12.7	5	+7.7	Coinflip
6	Kyle Busch	17.0	6	+11.0	Coinflip
7	Brad Keselowski	11.2	7	+4.2	Moderate
13	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	13	+2.4	Coinflip
14	Michael McDowell	17.0	14	+3.0	Coinflip
16	Chris Buescher	9.2	16	-6.8	High Confidence
20	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	20	-0.1	Moderate
30	Denny Hamlin	8.2	30	-21.8	High Confidence
31	Ryan Blaney	9.2	31	-21.8	High Confidence
32	Austin Dillon	17.1	32	-14.9	Coinflip
33	Chase Elliott	7.8	33	-25.2	High Confidence
36	Joey Logano	14.7	36	-21.3	Coinflip
37	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	37	-18.7	Moderate
39	Alex Bowman	13.5	39	-25.5	Coinflip
40	Casey Mears	16.9	40	-23.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 37 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 19.1 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P33 on the day.

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