NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA

Talladega Superspeedway, October 23, 2016

Joey Logano

Winner

192

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA at Talladega Superspeedway on October 23, 2016, leading 45 of 192 laps. Brian Scott finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2016

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	16	+15	Joey Logano	192	—	Running	45	44
2	25	+23	Brian Scott	192	—	Running	—	39
3	8	+5	Denny Hamlin	192	—	Running	12	39
4	7	+3	Kurt Busch	192	—	Running	—	37
5	6	+1	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	192	—	Running	6	37
6	24	+18	Kyle Larson	192	—	Running	—	35
7	22	+15	Kevin Harvick	192	—	Running	—	34
8	26	+18	Aric Almirola	192	—	Running	—	33
9	9	—	Austin Dillon	192	—	Running	1	33
10	32	+22	A.J. Allmendinger	192	—	Running	—	31
11	15	+4	Ryan Blaney	192	—	Running	3	31
12	4	-8	Chase Elliott	192	—	Running	9	30
13	10	-3	Paul Menard	192	—	Running	—	28
14	20	+6	Ryan Newman	192	—	Running	—	27
15	5	-10	Greg Biffle	192	—	Running	13	27
16	34	+18	Michael McDowell	192	—	Running	—	25
17	11	-6	Trevor Bayne	192	—	Running	—	24
18	36	+18	Clint Bowyer	192	—	Running	—	23
19	23	+4	Jamie McMurray	192	—	Running	—	22
20	30	+10	Danica Patrick	192	—	Running	—	21
21	31	+10	Landon Cassill	192	—	Running	—	20
22	33	+11	Chris Buescher	192	—	Running	—	19
23	17	-6	Jimmie Johnson	192	—	Running	—	18
24	40	+16	David Ragan	192	—	Running	—	17
25	29	+4	Regan Smith	192	—	Running	—	16
26	18	-8	Ryan Reed	192	—	Running	—	0
27	35	+8	Matt DiBenedetto	192	—	Running	—	14
28	3	-25	Matt Kenseth	192	—	Running	1	14
29	13	-16	Carl Edwards	192	—	Running	1	13
30	14	-16	Kyle Busch	192	—	Running	2	12
31	38	+7	Bobby Labonte	192	—	Running	—	10
32	21	-11	Tony Stewart	192	—	Running	1	10
33	37	+4	Michael Annett	192	—	Running	6	9
34	39	+5	Jeffrey Earnhardt	192	—	Running	—	7
35	27	-8	Kasey Kahne	191	—	Running	—	6
36	19	-17	Alex Bowman	191	—	Running	—	0
37	12	-25	Reed Sorenson	179	—	Running	—	4
38	2	-36	Brad Keselowski	144	—	DNF	90	5
39	28	-11	Casey Mears	113	—	DNF	—	2
40	1	-39	Martin Truex, Jr.	41	—	DNF	2	2

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	18.5	1	+17.5	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	15.1	3	+12.1	Coinflip
5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	5	+13.5	Coinflip
6	Kyle Larson	20.1	6	+14.1	Coinflip
9	Austin Dillon	21.1	9	+12.1	High Confidence
10	A.J. Allmendinger	22.9	10	+12.9	High Confidence
11	Ryan Blaney	10.4	11	-0.6	Moderate
12	Chase Elliott	13.6	12	+1.6	Moderate
16	Michael McDowell	19.2	16	+3.2	Coinflip
22	Chris Buescher	13.6	22	-8.4	Moderate
23	Jimmie Johnson	20.0	23	-3.0	Coinflip
36	Alex Bowman	17.4	36	-18.6	Coinflip
38	Brad Keselowski	18.5	38	-19.5	Coinflip
39	Casey Mears	20.0	39	-19.0	Coinflip
40	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.5	40	-19.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 42 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.2 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P11 on the day.

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