NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON

Darlington Raceway — September 3, 2016

Elliott Sadler
Winner
147
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders

Elliott Sadler won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway on September 3, 2016, leading 75 of 147 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 3, 2016
Season
2016
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Elliott Sadler
2 2 Denny Hamlin
3 5 +2 Daniel Suarez
4 13 +9 Kyle Larson
5 11 +6 Brennan Poole
6 10 +4 Erik Jones
7 4 -3 Ryan Blaney
8 19 +11 Jeremy Clements
9 12 +3 Brandon Jones
10 22 +12 Ryan Preece
11 7 -4 Justin Allgaier
12 8 -4 Ty Dillon
13 15 +2 Ryan Reed
14 21 +7 J.J. Yeley
15 17 +2 Ryan Sieg
16 9 -7 Brendan Gaughan
17 14 -3 Bubba Wallace
18 18 Dakoda Armstrong
19 16 -3 Blake Koch
20 1 -19 Paul Menard
21 24 +3 Ray Black, Jr.
22 23 +1 Garrett Smithley
23 36 +13 David Starr
24 27 +3 Joey Gase
25 34 +9 Derrike Cope
26 25 -1 Mario Gosselin
27 31 +4 Josh Berry
28 29 +1 Todd Peck
29 20 -9 Ross Chastain
30 30 Jeff Green
31 33 +2 Mike Harmon
32 32 Carl Long
33 28 -5 Ryan Ellis
34 37 +3 Morgan Shepherd
35 6 -29 Kevin Harvick
36 35 -1 Timmy Hill
37 26 -11 B.J. McLeod
38 39 +1 Dexter Bean
39 40 +1 John Jackson
40 38 -2 Matt DiBenedetto
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
2 Denny Hamlin 8.2 2 +6.2
3 Daniel Suarez 14.0 3 +11.0
4 Kyle Larson 12.7 4 +8.7
5 Brennan Poole 24.7 5 +19.7
6 Erik Jones 16.7 6 +10.7
7 Ryan Blaney 9.2 7 +2.2
10 Ryan Preece 10.1 10 +0.1
11 Justin Allgaier 18.3 11 +7.3
12 Ty Dillon 23.4 12 +11.4
14 J.J. Yeley 28.8 14 +14.8
17 Bubba Wallace 12.7 17 -4.3
23 David Starr 20.9 23 -2.1
24 Joey Gase 23.4 24 -0.6
27 Josh Berry 22.9 27 -4.1
29 Ross Chastain 13.3 29 -15.7
36 Timmy Hill 23.9 36 -12.1
37 B.J. McLeod 24.8 37 -12.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Elliott Sadler: has 33 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 17.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
  • Brennan Poole: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P25. Track history: 12 starts, 22.1 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON?
Elliott Sadler won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON was held at Darlington Raceway on September 3, 2016.