NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON
Darlington Raceway — September 3, 2016
Elliott Sadler
Winner
147
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Elliott Sadler won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway on September 3, 2016, leading 75 of 147 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 3, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Elliott Sadler |
| 2 | 2 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 5 | +2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 4 | 13 | +9 | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Brennan Poole |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Erik Jones |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Jeremy Clements |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Brandon Jones |
| 10 | 22 | +12 | Ryan Preece |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | Justin Allgaier |
| 12 | 8 | -4 | Ty Dillon |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Ryan Reed |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 18 | 18 | — | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 19 | 16 | -3 | Blake Koch |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Paul Menard |
| 21 | 24 | +3 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 23 | 36 | +13 | David Starr |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Joey Gase |
| 25 | 34 | +9 | Derrike Cope |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Mario Gosselin |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Josh Berry |
| 28 | 29 | +1 | Todd Peck |
| 29 | 20 | -9 | Ross Chastain |
| 30 | 30 | — | Jeff Green |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Mike Harmon |
| 32 | 32 | — | Carl Long |
| 33 | 28 | -5 | Ryan Ellis |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 35 | 6 | -29 | Kevin Harvick |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | Timmy Hill |
| 37 | 26 | -11 | B.J. McLeod |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Dexter Bean |
| 39 | 40 | +1 | John Jackson |
| 40 | 38 | -2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 2 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 4 | +8.7 |
| 5 | Brennan Poole | 24.7 | 5 | +19.7 |
| 6 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 6 | +10.7 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 7 | +2.2 |
| 10 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 10 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 11 | +7.3 |
| 12 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 12 | +11.4 |
| 14 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 14 | +14.8 |
| 17 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 17 | -4.3 |
| 23 | David Starr | 20.9 | 23 | -2.1 |
| 24 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 24 | -0.6 |
| 27 | Josh Berry | 22.9 | 27 | -4.1 |
| 29 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 29 | -15.7 |
| 36 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 36 | -12.1 |
| 37 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 37 | -12.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Elliott Sadler: has 33 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 17.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Brennan Poole: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P25. Track history: 12 starts, 22.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON?
Elliott Sadler won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DARLINGTON was held at Darlington Raceway on September 3, 2016.