NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 19, 2016
Daniel Suarez
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
11
Leaders
Daniel Suarez won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 19, 2016, leading 133 of 200 laps. Ty Dillon finished second; Elliott Sadler rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Elliott Sadler |
| 4 | 4 | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 5 | — | Austin Dillon |
| 6 | 6 | — | Justin Allgaier |
| 7 | 7 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 8 | 14 | +6 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Erik Jones |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Aric Almirola |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 12 | 23 | +11 | Ryan Sieg |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | J.J. Yeley |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 10 | -5 | Brandon Jones |
| 16 | 13 | -3 | Ryan Reed |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Cole Custer |
| 18 | 16 | -2 | Cole Whitt |
| 19 | 25 | +6 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 20 | 12 | -8 | Blake Koch |
| 21 | 26 | +5 | Ryan Preece |
| 22 | 20 | -2 | Ross Chastain |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Brandon Brown |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Jeremy Clements |
| 25 | 39 | +14 | Matt Tifft |
| 26 | 35 | +9 | Travis Kvapil |
| 27 | 17 | -10 | Brennan Poole |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 29 | 28 | -1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 34 | +4 | Brandon Hightower |
| 31 | 29 | -2 | B.J. McLeod |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Jeff Green |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Josh Reaume |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 35 | 21 | -14 | Corey LaJoie |
| 36 | 22 | -14 | Jordan Anderson |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Joey Gase |
| 38 | 36 | -2 | Mario Gosselin |
| 39 | 32 | -7 | Timmy Hill |
| 40 | 24 | -16 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 1 | +11.7 |
| 2 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 2 | +20.9 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 4 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 5 | +14.9 |
| 6 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 6 | +11.1 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 7 | +6.1 |
| 9 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 9 | +5.7 |
| 11 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 11 | +1.7 |
| 13 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 13 | +15.6 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 14 | +2.2 |
| 17 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 17 | +5.0 |
| 21 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 21 | -7.7 |
| 22 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 22 | -7.5 |
| 27 | Brennan Poole | 23.4 | 27 | -3.6 |
| 31 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 31 | -6.3 |
| 34 | Josh Bilicki | 26.1 | 34 | -7.9 |
| 35 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 35 | -12.8 |
| 37 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 37 | -14.1 |
| 39 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 39 | -15.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Daniel Suarez: has 13 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 17.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 18 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.6 avg finish, finishing P4 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 18 starts, 19.6 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI?
Daniel Suarez won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT MIAMI was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 19, 2016.