NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 16, 2016
Kyle Busch
Winner
200
Laps
40
Entries
3
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2016, leading 190 of 200 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 16, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
3 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 2 | — | Erik Jones |
| 3 | 3 | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 4 | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Austin Dillon |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | Brennan Poole |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Alex Bowman |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Elliott Sadler |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | Brandon Jones |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Jeremy Clements |
| 14 | 22 | +8 | Ryan Reed |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Ryan Sieg |
| 16 | 26 | +10 | J.J. Yeley |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | Dakoda Armstrong |
| 18 | 14 | -4 | Justin Marks |
| 19 | 12 | -7 | Ryan Preece |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | B.J. McLeod |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 22 | 34 | +12 | Timmy Hill |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | Garrett Smithley |
| 24 | 33 | +9 | Mario Gosselin |
| 25 | 36 | +11 | Joey Gase |
| 26 | 35 | +9 | Scott Heckert |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | T.J. Bell |
| 28 | 39 | +11 | Matt Waltz |
| 29 | 40 | +11 | Chris Cockrum |
| 30 | 38 | +8 | Mike Harmon |
| 31 | 21 | -10 | Ross Chastain |
| 32 | 11 | -21 | Blake Koch |
| 33 | 10 | -23 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | 24 | -10 | Jeff Green |
| 35 | 32 | -3 | Derrike Cope |
| 36 | 25 | -11 | David Starr |
| 37 | 20 | -17 | Corey LaJoie |
| 38 | 28 | -10 | Carl Long |
| 39 | 37 | -2 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 40 | 23 | -17 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1 | +14.6 |
| 2 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 2 | +15.7 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 3 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 4 | +11.6 |
| 5 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 5 | +12.0 |
| 6 | Brennan Poole | 23.1 | 6 | +17.1 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 7 | +10.7 |
| 8 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 8 | +6.0 |
| 12 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 12 | +2.0 |
| 16 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 16 | +12.1 |
| 19 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 19 | -8.2 |
| 20 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 20 | +5.6 |
| 22 | Timmy Hill | 24.3 | 22 | +2.3 |
| 25 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 25 | -3.0 |
| 31 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 31 | -17.2 |
| 33 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 33 | -8.7 |
| 36 | David Starr | 20.2 | 36 | -15.8 |
| 37 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 37 | -12.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 44 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 11.9 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Preece: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish, finishing P19 on the day.
- Brennan Poole: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 5 starts, 13.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE held?
The 2016 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2016.