NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA

Iowa Speedway — June 17, 2018

Justin Allgaier
Winner
250
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders

Justin Allgaier won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway on June 17, 2018, leading 182 of 250 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; Daniel Hemric rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, June 17, 2018
Season
2018
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 11 +10 Justin Allgaier
2 39 +37 Christopher Bell
3 2 -1 Daniel Hemric
4 5 +1 Cole Custer
5 3 -2 Brandon Jones
6 9 +3 Riley Herbst
7 17 +10 Ty Majeski
8 7 -1 Tyler Reddick
9 12 +3 Matt Tifft
10 8 -2 Kaz Grala
11 1 -10 Austin Cindric
12 13 +1 Justin Haley
13 10 -3 Michael Annett
14 6 -8 Ryan Truex
15 15 John Hunter Nemechek
16 14 -2 Shane Lee
17 40 +23 Ryan Reed
18 21 +3 Ryan Sieg
19 16 -3 Ross Chastain
20 19 -1 Jeremy Clements
21 27 +6 Joey Gase
22 26 +4 Spencer Boyd
23 18 -5 Alex Labbe
24 23 -1 David Starr
25 20 -5 Garrett Smithley
26 29 +3 Chad Finchum
27 32 +5 Blake Jones
28 4 -24 Elliott Sadler
29 22 -7 B.J. McLeod
30 28 -2 Brandon Hightower
31 36 +5 Vinnie Miller
32 25 -7 Tommy Joe Martins
33 38 +5 Stan Mullis
34 33 -1 Josh Williams
35 24 -11 Jeff Green
36 34 -2 Josh Bilicki
37 35 -2 Timmy Hill
38 37 -1 Mike Harmon
39 30 -9 Morgan Shepherd
40 31 -9 J.J. Yeley
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Justin Allgaier 18.3 1 +17.3
2 Christopher Bell 10.7 2 +8.7
4 Cole Custer 22.9 4 +18.9
6 Riley Herbst 21.4 6 +15.4
8 Tyler Reddick 6.2 8 -1.8
11 Austin Cindric 15.4 11 +4.4
12 Justin Haley 19.9 12 +7.9
14 Ryan Truex 15.4 14 +1.4
15 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 15 +4.1
19 Ross Chastain 13.3 19 -5.7
21 Joey Gase 23.4 21 +2.4
24 David Starr 20.9 24 -3.1
26 Chad Finchum 26.4 26 +0.4
29 B.J. McLeod 24.8 29 -4.2
36 Josh Bilicki 28.6 36 -7.4
37 Timmy Hill 23.9 37 -13.1
40 J.J. Yeley 28.8 40 -11.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Justin Allgaier: has 14 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 12.5 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
  • Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P23. Track history: 11 starts, 11.3 avg finish.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA?
Justin Allgaier won the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway.
Where was the 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA held?
The 2018 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA was held at Iowa Speedway on June 17, 2018.