TicketGuardian 500
Phoenix Raceway, March 10, 2019
Kyle Busch
Winner
312
Laps
36
Entries
6
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 10, 2019, leading 177 of 312 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Ryan Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Aric Almirola |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 31 | +25 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Kurt Busch |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Joey Logano |
| 11 | 26 | +15 | Clint Bowyer |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Ryan Newman |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 14 | 2 | -12 | Chase Elliott |
| 15 | 20 | +5 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 17 | — | Paul Menard |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Daniel Hemric |
| 19 | 5 | -14 | Brad Keselowski |
| 20 | 30 | +10 | Matt Tifft |
| 21 | 13 | -8 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 24 | 7 | -17 | William Byron |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | David Ragan |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Corey LaJoie |
| 27 | 33 | +6 | Ross Chastain |
| 28 | 25 | -3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 29 | 10 | -19 | Erik Jones |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Quin Houff |
| 31 | 36 | +5 | Bayley Currey |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Cody Ware |
| 33 | 32 | -1 | Landon Cassill |
| 34 | 21 | -13 | Ryan Preece |
| 35 | 6 | -29 | Alex Bowman |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | Michael McDowell |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 22 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 2 | +12.0 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 6 | +4.3 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 8 | +10.0 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 10 | +0.3 |
| 13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 13 | +7.4 |
| 14 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 14 | -4.1 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 15 | +8.1 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 16 | -4.0 |
| 19 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 19 | -5.2 |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 21 | -3.3 |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 22 | -9.4 |
| 23 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 23 | -9.0 |
| 24 | William Byron | 10.8 | 24 | -13.2 |
| 26 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 26 | -1.1 |
| 27 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 27 | -14.4 |
| 29 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 29 | -11.3 |
| 32 | Cody Ware | 37.3 | 32 | +5.3 |
| 34 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 34 | -21.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 37 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 8.3 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 16 starts, 11.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 TicketGuardian 500?
Kyle Busch won the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 held?
The 2019 TicketGuardian 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 10, 2019.