FireKeepers Casino 400
Michigan International Speedway — June 10, 2019
Joey Logano
Winner
203
Laps
38
Entries
11
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on June 10, 2019, leading 163 of 203 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Monday, June 10, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | +20 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Kurt Busch |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 18 | +14 | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Kyle Busch |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Kevin Harvick |
| 8 | 25 | +17 | Ryan Newman |
| 9 | 19 | +10 | Ryan Blaney |
| 10 | 17 | +7 | Alex Bowman |
| 11 | 6 | -5 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | 23 | +11 | Daniel Hemric |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Paul Menard |
| 14 | 5 | -9 | Kyle Larson |
| 15 | 8 | -7 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 16 | 16 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 2 | -16 | William Byron |
| 19 | 12 | -7 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Chase Elliott |
| 21 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 22 | — | — | Michael McDowell |
| 23 | — | — | Kurt Busch |
| 24 | — | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 25 | — | — | Matt Tifft |
| 26 | 28 | +2 | Austin Dillon |
| 27 | — | — | Bubba Wallace |
| 28 | — | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 29 | — | — | Ross Chastain |
| 30 | — | — | Landon Cassill |
| 31 | — | — | Quin Houff |
| 32 | — | — | Austin Theriault |
| 33 | — | — | Aric Almirola |
| 34 | — | — | Jimmie Johnson |
| 35 | 13 | -22 | Clint Bowyer |
| 36 | — | — | Cody Ware |
| 37 | — | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 38 | — | — | Spencer Boyd |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Denny Hamlin | 2 | 5 | — | 15 |
| Kevin Harvick | — | 3 | — | 8 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 6 | 10 | — | 6 |
| William Byron | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Alex Bowman | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Kyle Larson | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Ryan Blaney | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Aric Almirola | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hemric | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Tifft | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Theriault | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Spencer Boyd | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 1 | +13.7 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 4 | +10.0 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 5 | +12.0 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 6 | +5.2 |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 9 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 11 | -2.8 |
| 14 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 14 | -1.3 |
| 15 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 15 | +4.9 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 16 | -6.8 |
| 18 | William Byron | 10.7 | 18 | -7.3 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 19 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 20 | -12.2 |
| 21 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 21 | +1.2 |
| 22 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 22 | -5.0 |
| 26 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 26 | -8.9 |
| 27 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 27 | -14.3 |
| 29 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 29 | -15.7 |
| 36 | Cody Ware | 56.1 | 36 | +20.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 37 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish, finishing P20 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P36 vs predicted P56. Track history: 4 starts, 28.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400?
Joey Logano won the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 held?
The 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 10, 2019.