NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA

Iowa Speedway — July 27, 2019

Chase Briscoe
Winner
250
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders

Chase Briscoe won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway on July 27, 2019, leading 7 of 250 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 27, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 2 +1 Chase Briscoe
2 1 -1 Christopher Bell
3 14 +11 John Hunter Nemechek
4 13 +9 Noah Gragson
5 11 +6 Tyler Reddick
6 5 -1 Justin Allgaier
7 7 Shane Lee
8 15 +7 Justin Haley
9 12 +3 Zane Smith
10 9 -1 Michael Annett
11 24 +13 Ray Black, Jr.
12 10 -2 Ryan Sieg
13 4 -9 Riley Herbst
14 19 +5 Gray Gaulding
15 29 +14 Josh Williams
16 25 +9 Stephen Leicht
17 23 +6 Ryan Vargas
18 30 +12 Matt Mills
19 26 +7 Joey Gase
20 33 +13 Vinnie Miller
21 28 +7 Stefan Parsons
22 35 +13 Garrett Smithley
23 36 +13 Stan Mullis
24 27 +3 Camden Murphy
25 38 +13 Ryan Repko
26 17 -9 Dillon Bassett
27 20 -7 Brandon Brown
28 21 -7 Will Rodgers
29 6 -23 Cole Custer
30 16 -14 Jeremy Clements
31 32 +1 David Starr
32 22 -10 Chad Finchum
33 3 -30 Brandon Jones
34 37 +3 Mike Harmon
35 31 -4 Timmy Hill
36 34 -2 Morgan Shepherd
37 8 -29 Austin Cindric
38 18 -20 J.J. Yeley
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Chase Briscoe 11.9 1 +10.9
2 Christopher Bell 10.7 2 +8.7
3 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 3 +16.1
4 Noah Gragson 21.4 4 +17.4
5 Tyler Reddick 6.2 5 +1.2
6 Justin Allgaier 18.3 6 +12.3
8 Justin Haley 19.9 8 +11.9
9 Zane Smith 19.1 9 +10.1
13 Riley Herbst 21.4 13 +8.4
19 Joey Gase 23.4 19 +4.4
29 Cole Custer 22.9 29 -6.1
31 David Starr 20.9 31 -10.1
32 Chad Finchum 26.4 32 -5.6
35 Timmy Hill 23.9 35 -11.1
37 Austin Cindric 15.4 37 -21.6
38 J.J. Yeley 28.8 38 -9.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Chase Briscoe: has 6 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 9.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 12.5 avg finish, finishing P5 on the day.
  • Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P21. Track history: 6 starts, 10.5 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA?
Chase Briscoe won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA was held at Iowa Speedway on July 27, 2019.