NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA
Iowa Speedway — July 27, 2019
Chase Briscoe
Winner
250
Laps
38
Entries
5
Leaders
Chase Briscoe won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway on July 27, 2019, leading 7 of 250 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Chase Briscoe |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Christopher Bell |
| 3 | 14 | +11 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 4 | 13 | +9 | Noah Gragson |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Justin Allgaier |
| 7 | 7 | — | Shane Lee |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Justin Haley |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Zane Smith |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Michael Annett |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 12 | 10 | -2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Riley Herbst |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Gray Gaulding |
| 15 | 29 | +14 | Josh Williams |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Stephen Leicht |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Ryan Vargas |
| 18 | 30 | +12 | Matt Mills |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Joey Gase |
| 20 | 33 | +13 | Vinnie Miller |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | Stefan Parsons |
| 22 | 35 | +13 | Garrett Smithley |
| 23 | 36 | +13 | Stan Mullis |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Camden Murphy |
| 25 | 38 | +13 | Ryan Repko |
| 26 | 17 | -9 | Dillon Bassett |
| 27 | 20 | -7 | Brandon Brown |
| 28 | 21 | -7 | Will Rodgers |
| 29 | 6 | -23 | Cole Custer |
| 30 | 16 | -14 | Jeremy Clements |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | David Starr |
| 32 | 22 | -10 | Chad Finchum |
| 33 | 3 | -30 | Brandon Jones |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Mike Harmon |
| 35 | 31 | -4 | Timmy Hill |
| 36 | 34 | -2 | Morgan Shepherd |
| 37 | 8 | -29 | Austin Cindric |
| 38 | 18 | -20 | J.J. Yeley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 1 | +10.9 |
| 2 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 2 | +8.7 |
| 3 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 3 | +16.1 |
| 4 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 4 | +17.4 |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 5 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 6 | +12.3 |
| 8 | Justin Haley | 19.9 | 8 | +11.9 |
| 9 | Zane Smith | 19.1 | 9 | +10.1 |
| 13 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 13 | +8.4 |
| 19 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 19 | +4.4 |
| 29 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 29 | -6.1 |
| 31 | David Starr | 20.9 | 31 | -10.1 |
| 32 | Chad Finchum | 26.4 | 32 | -5.6 |
| 35 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 35 | -11.1 |
| 37 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 37 | -21.6 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Briscoe: has 6 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 9.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 10 career starts at Iowa Speedway with a 12.5 avg finish, finishing P5 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P21. Track history: 6 starts, 10.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA?
Chase Briscoe won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA at Iowa Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT IOWA was held at Iowa Speedway on July 27, 2019.