TicketGuardian 500
Phoenix Raceway — March 10, 2019
Kyle Busch
Winner
312
Laps
20
Entries
6
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 10, 2019, leading 177 of 312 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Ryan Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 31 | +29 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Ryan Blaney |
| 4 | 33 | +29 | Aric Almirola |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 35 | +29 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Kurt Busch |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 9 | 1 | -8 | Kevin Harvick |
| 10 | 30 | +20 | Joey Logano |
| 11 | 2 | -9 | Clint Bowyer |
| 12 | 19 | +7 | Ryan Newman |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 14 | 32 | +18 | Chase Elliott |
| 15 | 36 | +21 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | Paul Menard |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Daniel Hemric |
| 19 | 4 | -15 | Brad Keselowski |
| 20 | 26 | +6 | Matt Tifft |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Chase Elliott | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | 7 | — | 10 |
| Chris Buescher | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 10 | — | 8 |
| Clint Bowyer | 8 | 8 | — | 6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hemric | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Tifft | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1 | +14.6 |
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 3 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 5 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 6 | +2.6 |
| 8 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 10 | +2.1 |
| 13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 13 | +7.1 |
| 14 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 14 | -5.7 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 16 | -5.7 |
| 19 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 19 | -7.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 34 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.1 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 TicketGuardian 500?
Kyle Busch won the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 held?
The 2019 TicketGuardian 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 10, 2019.