FanShield 500
Phoenix Raceway, March 8, 2020
Joey Logano
Winner
316
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2020 FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 8, 2020, leading 60 of 316 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 2 | — | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 4 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 18 | +13 | Clint Bowyer |
| 6 | 7 | +1 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 6 | -2 | Aric Almirola |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Cole Custer |
| 10 | 17 | +7 | William Byron |
| 11 | 14 | +3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 13 | 9 | -4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 25 | +10 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 27 | +8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | 3 | -17 | Denny Hamlin |
| 21 | 31 | +10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 22 | 19 | -3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | Ross Chastain |
| 24 | 15 | -9 | Christopher Bell |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 26 | 33 | +7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | 11 | -17 | Erik Jones |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Reed Sorenson |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Brennan Poole |
| 32 | 12 | -20 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 33 | 29 | -4 | Tyler Reddick |
| 34 | 34 | — | Quin Houff |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Garrett Smithley |
| 36 | 30 | -6 | Austin Dillon |
| 37 | 5 | -32 | Ryan Blaney |
| 38 | 38 | — | Timmy Hill |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Joey Logano | 3 | 7 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 5 | — | 12 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Tyler Reddick | 9 | 4 | — | 9 |
| Aric Almirola | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Alex Bowman | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Kyle Larson | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Cole Custer | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Erik Jones | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sorenson | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 7 | +2.9 |
| 9 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 9 | +13.1 |
| 10 | William Byron | 10.8 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 11 | +2.8 |
| 12 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 12 | +6.0 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 14 | +1.6 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 15 | +8.1 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 17 | -5.0 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 18 | -5.4 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 19 | -6.4 |
| 20 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 20 | -13.2 |
| 21 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 21 | -7.0 |
| 22 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 22 | -1.6 |
| 23 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 23 | -10.4 |
| 24 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 24 | -15.7 |
| 25 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.0 | 25 | -6.0 |
| 26 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 26 | +1.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 22 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 12.5 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P20 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P22. Track history: 16 starts, 16.9 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 FanShield 500?
Joey Logano won the 2020 FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2020 FanShield 500 held?
The 2020 FanShield 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 8, 2020.