FanShield 500
Phoenix Raceway — March 8, 2020
Joey Logano
Winner
316
Laps
21
Entries
7
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2020 FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 8, 2020, leading 60 of 316 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | — | — | Kyle Larson |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Clint Bowyer |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 5 | -2 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 21 | +13 | Aric Almirola |
| 9 | 35 | +26 | Cole Custer |
| 10 | 22 | +12 | William Byron |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 32 | +17 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 30 | +14 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | 33 | +15 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Denny Hamlin |
| 32 | 6 | -26 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| William Byron | 8 | 5 | — | 9 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | 6 | — | 9 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | 10 | — | 7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6 | 18 | — | 5 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 12 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | 11 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Clint Bowyer | 9 | 15 | — | 2 |
| Chris Buescher | 10 | 19 | — | 1 |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 1 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 3 | +12.6 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 4 | +4.6 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 9 | +14.0 |
| 10 | William Byron | 10.3 | 10 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 11 | +1.0 |
| 12 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 16 | -1.0 |
| 17 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 17 | -6.7 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 18 | -7.2 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 19 | -5.0 |
| 20 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 20 | -13.2 |
| 32 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 32 | -18.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 23 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P20 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P23. Track history: 15 starts, 16.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 FanShield 500?
Joey Logano won the 2020 FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2020 FanShield 500 held?
The 2020 FanShield 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 8, 2020.