NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE
Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 10, 2020
A.J. Allmendinger
Winner
68
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 10, 2020, leading 12 of 68 laps. Noah Gragson finished second; Daniel Hemric rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 10, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | +21 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Noah Gragson |
| 3 | 3 | — | Daniel Hemric |
| 4 | 16 | +12 | Alex Labbe |
| 5 | 5 | — | Ross Chastain |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Austin Cindric |
| 7 | 38 | +31 | Cody Ware |
| 8 | 24 | +16 | Jade Buford |
| 9 | 14 | +5 | Michael Annett |
| 10 | 4 | -6 | Brandon Jones |
| 11 | 26 | +15 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 12 | 13 | +1 | Riley Herbst |
| 13 | 32 | +19 | Josh Bilicki |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | Myatt Snider |
| 15 | 31 | +16 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Jeremy Clements |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Ryan Vargas |
| 18 | 8 | -10 | Chase Briscoe |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | Timmy Hill |
| 20 | 34 | +14 | Kody Vanderwal |
| 21 | 6 | -15 | Ryan Sieg |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | B.J. McLeod |
| 23 | 10 | -13 | Justin Allgaier |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Stephen Leicht |
| 25 | 23 | -2 | Matt Mills |
| 26 | 7 | -19 | Brandon Brown |
| 27 | 17 | -10 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Gray Gaulding |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 30 | 37 | +7 | Jesse Little |
| 31 | 12 | -19 | Kaz Grala |
| 32 | 30 | -2 | Preston Pardus |
| 33 | 9 | -24 | Harrison Burton |
| 34 | 15 | -19 | Josh Williams |
| 35 | 2 | -33 | Justin Haley |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | Austin Hill |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 38 | 19 | -19 | Brett Moffitt |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 1 | +17.3 |
| 2 | Noah Gragson | 21.4 | 2 | +19.4 |
| 5 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 5 | +8.3 |
| 6 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Cody Ware | 56.1 | 7 | +49.1 |
| 12 | Riley Herbst | 21.4 | 12 | +9.4 |
| 13 | Josh Bilicki | 28.6 | 13 | +15.6 |
| 18 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 18 | -6.1 |
| 19 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 19 | +4.9 |
| 22 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 22 | +2.8 |
| 23 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 23 | -4.7 |
| 35 | Justin Haley | 19.9 | 35 | -15.1 |
| 36 | Austin Hill | 20.9 | 36 | -15.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- A.J. Allmendinger: has 27 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 17.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Briscoe: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P18 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P56. Track history: 8 starts, 23.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE?
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE held?
The 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 10, 2020.