Food City Dirt Race
Bristol Motor Speedway, March 29, 2021
Joey Logano
Winner
253
Laps
39
Entries
5
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2021 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 29, 2021, leading 61 of 253 laps. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Monday, March 29, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 13 | +11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 18 | +14 | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | 14 | +9 | Ryan Newman |
| 6 | 8 | +2 | William Byron |
| 7 | 27 | +20 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 3 | -5 | Ryan Blaney |
| 9 | 24 | +15 | Erik Jones |
| 10 | 26 | +16 | Chase Elliott |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Michael McDowell |
| 13 | 12 | -1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 6 | -9 | Kevin Harvick |
| 16 | 28 | +12 | Kurt Busch |
| 17 | 4 | -13 | Kyle Busch |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 5 | -14 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Chase Briscoe |
| 21 | 9 | -12 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 7 | -15 | Alex Bowman |
| 23 | 32 | +9 | Stewart Friesen |
| 24 | 21 | -3 | Cole Custer |
| 25 | 33 | +8 | Quin Houff |
| 26 | 39 | +13 | Ty Dillon |
| 27 | 19 | -8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 28 | 34 | +6 | J.J. Yeley |
| 29 | 1 | -28 | Kyle Larson |
| 30 | 37 | +7 | Josh Bilicki |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Mike Marlar |
| 32 | 31 | -1 | Cody Ware |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Chris Windom |
| 34 | 15 | -19 | Christopher Bell |
| 35 | 17 | -18 | Ross Chastain |
| 36 | 23 | -13 | Aric Almirola |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Shane Golobic |
| 38 | 30 | -8 | Corey LaJoie |
| 39 | 29 | -10 | Anthony Alfredo |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 4 | — | 17 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| Daniel Suarez | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Joey Logano | 6 | 1 | — | 15 |
| Ryan Newman | 8 | 5 | — | 9 |
| William Byron | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Bubba Wallace | 7 | 7 | — | 8 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 9 | 6 | — | 7 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Erik Jones | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Tyler Reddick | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Chase Elliott | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Chris Buescher | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Harvick | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Stewart Friesen | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Mike Marlar | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Windom | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Shane Golobic | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 28 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 2 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 2 | +18.4 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 4 | +10.0 |
| 6 | William Byron | 10.8 | 6 | +4.8 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 7 | +5.0 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 9 | +8.7 |
| 10 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 11 | +2.8 |
| 12 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 12 | +3.6 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 14 | -2.0 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 18 | -5.4 |
| 19 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 19 | -5.0 |
| 20 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 20 | -11.4 |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 21 | -3.3 |
| 22 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 22 | -6.4 |
| 24 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 24 | -1.9 |
| 26 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 26 | -2.9 |
| 27 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 27 | -14.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 46 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 30 starts, 17.6 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Food City Dirt Race?
Joey Logano won the 2021 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2021 Food City Dirt Race held?
The 2021 Food City Dirt Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 29, 2021.