Food City Dirt Race

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 29, 2021

Joey Logano
Winner
253
Laps
20
Entries
5
Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2021 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 29, 2021, leading 61 of 253 laps. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Monday, March 29, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 16 +15 Joey Logano
2 2 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
3 14 +11 Denny Hamlin
4 9 +5 Daniel Suarez
5 25 +20 Ryan Newman
6 4 -2 William Byron
7 15 +8 Tyler Reddick
8 11 +3 Ryan Blaney
9 19 +10 Erik Jones
10 3 -7 Chase Elliott
11 13 +2 Brad Keselowski
12 24 +12 Michael McDowell
13 22 +9 Matt DiBenedetto
14 27 +13 Chris Buescher
15 5 -10 Kevin Harvick
16 12 -4 Kurt Busch
17 20 +3 Kyle Busch
18 28 +10 Ryan Preece
19 8 -11 Martin Truex, Jr.
20 21 +1 Chase Briscoe
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
William Byron 3 3 2 25
Chase Elliott 2 2 4 25
Kyle Busch 6 4 3 20
Tyler Reddick 8 5 6 14
Kevin Harvick 4 6 10 13
Denny Hamlin 15 9 7 6
Martin Truex, Jr. 7 15 16 4
Chris Buescher 17 8 12 3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 9 14 15 2
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Joey Logano 12.1 1 +11.1
2 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 2 +18.1
3 Denny Hamlin 6.8 3 +3.8
4 Daniel Suarez 15.6 4 +11.6
6 William Byron 10.3 6 +4.3
7 Tyler Reddick 9.9 7 +2.9
8 Ryan Blaney 6.8 8 -1.2
9 Erik Jones 17.7 9 +8.7
10 Chase Elliott 8.3 10 -1.7
11 Brad Keselowski 12.0 11 +1.0
12 Michael McDowell 15.0 12 +3.0
14 Chris Buescher 10.3 14 -3.7
17 Kyle Busch 15.6 17 -1.4
18 Ryan Preece 10.8 18 -7.2
19 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 19 -5.2
20 Chase Briscoe 12.6 20 -7.4

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Joey Logano: has 44 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2021 Food City Dirt Race?
Joey Logano won the 2021 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2021 Food City Dirt Race held?
The 2021 Food City Dirt Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 29, 2021.