NASCAR Xfinity Series at Richmond
Richmond Raceway — September 11, 2021
Noah Gragson
Winner
250
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Noah Gragson won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Richmond at Richmond Raceway on September 11, 2021, leading 22 of 250 laps. Justin Haley finished second; John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 11, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Noah Gragson |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Justin Haley |
| 3 | 27 | +24 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Justin Allgaier |
| 5 | 20 | +15 | Riley Herbst |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | Daniel Hemric |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Ty Gibbs |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Brandon Brown |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Harrison Burton |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Jeb Burton |
| 11 | 19 | +8 | Ty Dillon |
| 12 | 38 | +26 | Sam Mayer |
| 13 | 11 | -2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 14 | 30 | +16 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 15 | 32 | +17 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 16 | 1 | -15 | Austin Cindric |
| 17 | 34 | +17 | Mason Massey |
| 18 | 8 | -10 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 19 | 13 | -6 | Alex Labbe |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | Brandon Jones |
| 21 | 21 | — | Matt Mills |
| 22 | 10 | -12 | Michael Annett |
| 23 | 14 | -9 | Josh Williams |
| 24 | 33 | +9 | Josh Berry |
| 25 | 9 | -16 | Myatt Snider |
| 26 | 7 | -19 | Jeremy Clements |
| 27 | 28 | +1 | Bayley Currey |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | David Starr |
| 29 | 29 | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 30 | 26 | -4 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 31 | 23 | -8 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 32 | 22 | -10 | Patrick Emerling |
| 33 | 35 | +2 | Spencer Boyd |
| 34 | 40 | +6 | Akinori Ogata |
| 35 | 25 | -10 | Ryan Vargas |
| 36 | 18 | -18 | Jade Buford |
| 37 | 24 | -13 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 38 | 36 | -2 | Stephen Leicht |
| 39 | 31 | -8 | Landon Cassill |
| 40 | 39 | -1 | C.J. McLaughlin |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 1 | +22.0 |
| 2 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 2 | +19.2 |
| 3 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 3 | +17.1 |
| 4 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 4 | +13.7 |
| 5 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 5 | +17.1 |
| 7 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 7 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 11 | +13.3 |
| 16 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 16 | +1.0 |
| 18 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 18 | +0.3 |
| 24 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 24 | -5.0 |
| 28 | David Starr | 20.2 | 28 | -7.8 |
| 29 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 29 | -0.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Noah Gragson: has 10 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 17.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ty Gibbs: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 16.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P7 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Richmond?
Noah Gragson won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Richmond at Richmond Raceway.
Where was the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Richmond held?
The 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Richmond was held at Richmond Raceway on September 11, 2021.