Ruoff Mortgage 500
Phoenix Raceway, March 13, 2022
Chase Briscoe
Winner
312
Laps
36
Entries
6
Leaders
Chase Briscoe won the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 13, 2022, leading 101 of 312 laps. Ross Chastain finished second; Tyler Reddick rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, March 13, 2022
Track
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Chase Briscoe |
| 2 | 17 | +15 | Ross Chastain |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | Tyler Reddick |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 15 | +10 | Kurt Busch |
| 6 | 16 | +10 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 23 | +14 | Daniel Suarez |
| 10 | 26 | +16 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 19 | +8 | Chase Elliott |
| 12 | 5 | -7 | Aric Almirola |
| 13 | 2 | -11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 14 | 9 | -5 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Cole Custer |
| 17 | 28 | +11 | Justin Haley |
| 18 | 3 | -15 | William Byron |
| 19 | 33 | +14 | Todd Gilliland |
| 20 | 29 | +9 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 21 | 13 | -8 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 23 | 18 | -5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 24 | 8 | -16 | Austin Cindric |
| 25 | 14 | -11 | Erik Jones |
| 26 | 4 | -22 | Christopher Bell |
| 27 | 22 | -5 | Michael McDowell |
| 28 | 36 | +8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Harrison Burton |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | Landon Cassill |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Cody Ware |
| 32 | 35 | +3 | Garrett Smithley |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | B.J. McLeod |
| 34 | 7 | -27 | Kyle Larson |
| 35 | 20 | -15 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 36 | 30 | -6 | Corey LaJoie |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| William Byron | 1 | 4 | — | 17 |
| Chase Briscoe | 2 | 8 | — | 12 |
| Tyler Reddick | 4 | 6 | — | 12 |
| Kevin Harvick | 8 | 3 | — | 11 |
| Ryan Blaney | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Kyle Larson | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Ross Chastain | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 10 | — | 3 |
| Austin Dillon | 10 | 9 | — | 3 |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Cindric | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 1 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 2 | +10.6 |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 3 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 8 | +2.3 |
| 9 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 9 | +5.0 |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| 11 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 13 | -6.2 |
| 14 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 14 | +1.6 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 15 | +8.1 |
| 16 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 16 | +6.1 |
| 17 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 17 | +4.2 |
| 18 | William Byron | 10.8 | 18 | -7.2 |
| 19 | Todd Gilliland | 17.7 | 19 | -1.3 |
| 20 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 20 | +0.1 |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 21 | -3.3 |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 22 | -9.4 |
| 23 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 23 | -9.2 |
| 24 | Austin Cindric | 14.0 | 24 | -10.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Briscoe: has 12 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 18.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Ross Chastain: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P13. Track history: 18 starts, 16.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500?
Chase Briscoe won the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 held?
The 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 13, 2022.