Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway — September 17, 2022

Chris Buescher
Winner
500
Laps
22
Entries
6
Leaders

Chris Buescher won the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 17, 2022, leading 169 of 500 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; William Byron rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 17, 2022
Season
2022
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 22 +21 Chris Buescher
2 2 Chase Elliott
3 25 +22 William Byron
4 20 +16 Christopher Bell
5 1 -4 Kyle Larson
6 9 +3 Ross Chastain
7 21 +14 A.J. Allmendinger
8 5 -3 Cole Custer
9 11 +2 Denny Hamlin
10 8 -2 Kevin Harvick
11 13 +2 Michael McDowell
12 29 +17 Justin Haley
13 6 -7 Brad Keselowski
14 3 -11 Chase Briscoe
15 14 -1 Corey LaJoie
16 10 -6 Harrison Burton
17 36 +19 Cody Ware
18 19 +1 Todd Gilliland
19 7 -12 Daniel Suarez
20 30 +10 Austin Cindric
28 15 -13 Aric Almirola
30 4 -26 Ryan Blaney
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Denny Hamlin 1 1 20
Chase Elliott 2 2 18
Kyle Larson 4 3 15
Cole Custer 3 4 15
Christopher Bell 6 5 11
Ryan Blaney 7 6 9
Ross Chastain 8 8 6
Chase Briscoe 5 17 6
Daniel Suarez 9 9 4
Aric Almirola 10 11 1
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Chris Buescher 10.3 1 +9.3
2 Chase Elliott 8.3 2 +6.3
3 William Byron 10.3 3 +7.3
4 Christopher Bell 8.6 4 +4.6
5 Kyle Larson 8.6 5 +3.6
6 Ross Chastain 13.8 6 +7.8
7 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 7 +11.3
8 Cole Custer 23.0 8 +15.0
9 Denny Hamlin 6.8 9 -2.2
11 Michael McDowell 15.0 11 +4.0
12 Justin Haley 21.2 12 +9.2
13 Brad Keselowski 12.0 13 -1.0
14 Chase Briscoe 12.6 14 -1.4
15 Corey LaJoie 24.9 15 +9.9
17 Cody Ware 29.8 17 +12.8
18 Todd Gilliland 17.1 18 -0.9
19 Daniel Suarez 15.6 19 -3.4
20 Austin Cindric 17.0 20 -3.0
30 Ryan Blaney 6.8 30 -23.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Chris Buescher: has 23 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
  • Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P8 vs predicted P23. Track history: 17 starts, 14.0 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Chris Buescher won the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for RFK Racing.
Where was the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race held?
The 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 17, 2022.