Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway — September 16, 2023

Denny Hamlin
Winner
500
Laps
21
Entries
6
Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 16, 2023, leading 142 of 500 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Christopher Bell rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 16, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 4 +3 Denny Hamlin
2 5 +3 Kyle Larson
3 7 +4 Christopher Bell
4 18 +14 Chris Buescher
5 2 -3 Ty Gibbs
6 23 +17 Michael McDowell
7 14 +7 Chase Elliott
8 10 +2 Brad Keselowski
9 16 +7 William Byron
10 20 +10 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
11 32 +21 Carson Hocevar
12 9 -3 Ryan Preece
13 22 +9 Alex Bowman
14 6 -8 Bubba Wallace
15 19 +4 Tyler Reddick
16 17 +1 Todd Gilliland
17 26 +9 Austin Dillon
18 12 -6 Aric Almirola
19 1 -18 Martin Truex, Jr.
20 31 +11 Kyle Busch
25 30 +5 Corey LaJoie
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Denny Hamlin 1 2 19
Brad Keselowski 5 5 12
Ty Gibbs 7 6 9
Martin Truex, Jr. 3 22 8
Ryan Preece 8 7 7
Christopher Bell 6 10 6
Todd Gilliland 18 8 3
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Denny Hamlin 6.8 1 +5.8
2 Kyle Larson 8.6 2 +6.6
3 Christopher Bell 8.6 3 +5.6
4 Chris Buescher 10.3 4 +6.3
5 Ty Gibbs 12.6 5 +7.6
6 Michael McDowell 15.0 6 +9.0
7 Chase Elliott 8.3 7 +1.3
8 Brad Keselowski 12.0 8 +4.0
9 William Byron 10.3 9 +1.3
10 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 10 +10.1
11 Carson Hocevar 14.7 11 +3.7
12 Ryan Preece 10.8 12 -1.2
13 Alex Bowman 14.0 13 +1.0
14 Bubba Wallace 14.0 14 0.0
15 Tyler Reddick 9.9 15 -5.1
16 Todd Gilliland 17.1 16 +1.1
17 Austin Dillon 17.0 17 0.0
19 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 19 -5.2
20 Kyle Busch 15.6 20 -4.4
25 Corey LaJoie 24.9 25 -0.1

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P10 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Denny Hamlin won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race held?
The 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 16, 2023.