Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway — September 16, 2023
Denny Hamlin
Winner
500
Laps
21
Entries
6
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 16, 2023, leading 142 of 500 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Christopher Bell rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 16, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Christopher Bell |
| 4 | 18 | +14 | Chris Buescher |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Ty Gibbs |
| 6 | 23 | +17 | Michael McDowell |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | William Byron |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 11 | 32 | +21 | Carson Hocevar |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Ryan Preece |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Alex Bowman |
| 14 | 6 | -8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Tyler Reddick |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Todd Gilliland |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | 12 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 19 | 1 | -18 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | Kyle Busch |
| 25 | 30 | +5 | Corey LaJoie |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 5 | — | 12 |
| Ty Gibbs | 7 | 6 | — | 9 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 22 | — | 8 |
| Ryan Preece | 8 | 7 | — | 7 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | 10 | — | 6 |
| Todd Gilliland | 18 | 8 | — | 3 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 2 | +6.6 |
| 3 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 3 | +5.6 |
| 4 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 5 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 5 | +7.6 |
| 6 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 6 | +9.0 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 7 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 8 | +4.0 |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 10 | +10.1 |
| 11 | Carson Hocevar | 14.7 | 11 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 12 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 13 | +1.0 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 15 | -5.1 |
| 16 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 16 | +1.1 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 17 | 0.0 |
| 19 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 19 | -5.2 |
| 20 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 20 | -4.4 |
| 25 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 25 | -0.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P10 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Denny Hamlin won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race held?
The 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 16, 2023.