NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma
Sonoma Raceway — June 10, 2023
Aric Almirola
Winner
79
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Aric Almirola won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma at Sonoma Raceway on June 10, 2023, leading 17 of 79 laps. A.J. Allmendinger finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, June 10, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 2 | 5 | +3 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Ty Gibbs |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Parker Kligerman |
| 6 | 26 | +20 | Cole Custer |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Justin Allgaier |
| 8 | 13 | +5 | Austin Hill |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Sammy Smith |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Sam Mayer |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Sheldon Creed |
| 12 | 14 | +2 | Brett Moffitt |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Daniel Hemric |
| 14 | 20 | +6 | Chandler Smith |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Riley Herbst |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 17 | 24 | +7 | Jeremy Clements |
| 18 | 15 | -3 | Ross Chastain |
| 19 | 25 | +6 | Josh Bilicki |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Kaz Grala |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | Brandon Jones |
| 22 | 18 | -4 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 23 | 32 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 24 | 33 | +9 | Dylan Lupton |
| 25 | 11 | -14 | Alex Labbe |
| 26 | 30 | +4 | Jeb Burton |
| 27 | 17 | -10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 28 | 34 | +6 | Ryan Sieg |
| 29 | 31 | +2 | Brad Perez |
| 30 | 36 | +6 | Blaine Perkins |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 32 | 29 | -3 | Connor Mosack |
| 33 | 19 | -14 | Josh Berry |
| 34 | 21 | -13 | Sage Karam |
| 35 | 22 | -13 | Josh Williams |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 37 | 37 | — | Anthony Alfredo |
| 38 | 16 | -22 | Parker Retzlaff |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16.5 | 2 | +14.5 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 12.9 | 3 | +9.9 |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs | 17.2 | 4 | +13.2 |
| 6 | Cole Custer | 25.7 | 6 | +19.7 |
| 7 | Justin Allgaier | 16.8 | 7 | +9.8 |
| 8 | Austin Hill | 21.4 | 8 | +13.4 |
| 15 | Riley Herbst | 25.7 | 15 | +10.7 |
| 16 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25.7 | 16 | +9.7 |
| 18 | Ross Chastain | 16.2 | 18 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Josh Bilicki | 29.0 | 19 | +10.0 |
| 23 | Ty Dillon | 21.4 | 23 | -1.6 |
| 27 | Daniel Suarez | 16.8 | 27 | -10.2 |
| 33 | Josh Berry | 28.4 | 33 | -4.6 |
| 37 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 37 | -15.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Aric Almirola: has 5 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 13.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Kyle Larson: was the model’s top pick based on 9 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 12.6 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P26. Track history: 6 starts, 19.0 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma?
Aric Almirola won the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma at Sonoma Raceway.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma held?
The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Sonoma was held at Sonoma Raceway on June 10, 2023.