Shriners Children's 500

Phoenix Raceway — March 10, 2024

Christopher Bell

Winner

312

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Christopher Bell won the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 10, 2024, leading 50 of 312 laps. Chris Buescher finished second; Ty Gibbs rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Track

Phoenix Raceway

Season

2024

Winner

Christopher Bell

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	Winner	Running	50	50
2	12	+10	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	312	—	Running	—	36
3	6	+3	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	57	43
4	30	+26	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	312	—	Running	—	35
5	26	+21	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	312	—	Running	—	41
6	2	-4	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	312	—	Running	—	31
7	13	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	55	37
8	8	—	Michael McDowell	Front Row Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	32
9	10	+1	Chase Briscoe	Stewart-Haas Racing	312	—	Running	—	30
10	15	+5	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	312	—	Running	68	46
11	14	+3	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	312	—	Running	68	42
12	3	-9	Noah Gragson	Stewart-Haas Racing	312	—	Running	—	28
13	27	+14	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	312	—	Running	—	24
14	4	-10	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	23
15	22	+7	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	22
16	23	+7	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	312	—	Running	—	21
17	25	+8	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	312	—	Running	14	20
18	36	+18	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	31
19	9	-10	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	28
20	18	-2	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	312	—	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Kyle Larson	Rick Hendrick	188	—	Running	—	24
22	—	—	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs	188	—	Running	—	16
23	—	—	Austin Cindric	Roger Penske	188	—	Running	—	33
24	—	—	Cody Ware	Rick Ware	188	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Chris Buescher	Jack Roush	188	—	Running	—	16
26	—	—	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	188	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress	188	—	Running	—	16
28	—	—	Shane van Gisbergen	Matthew Kaulig	188	—	Running	—	0
29	—	—	Zane Smith	Spire Motorsports	188	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress	188	—	Running	—	14
31	—	—	Michael McDowell	Bob Jenkins	187	—	Accident	—	6
32	—	—	B.J. McLeod	B.J. McLeod	187	—	Running	—	0
33	—	—	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	184	—	Running	—	4
34	—	—	Justin Haley	Rick Ware	184	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	154	—	Accident	—	2
36	—	—	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	154	—	Accident	—	1
37	—	—	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs	154	—	Accident	—	1
38	—	—	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs	132	—	Accident	—	5

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Denny Hamlin	1	3	—	18
Kyle Larson	3	2	—	17
Chris Buescher	5	1	—	16
Ross Chastain	2	9	—	11
Ty Gibbs	6	6	—	10
Martin Truex, Jr.	7	5	—	10
Christopher Bell	4	12	—	7
Alex Bowman	17	7	—	4
Tyler Reddick	15	8	—	3
Noah Gragson	9	10	—	3
Chase Elliott	10	11	—	1
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Ty Gibbs	—	—	—	—
Austin Cindric	—	—	—	—
Cody Ware	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Kyle Busch	—	—	—	—
Shane van Gisbergen	—	—	—	—
Zane Smith	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
B.J. McLeod	—	—	—	—
John Hunter Nemechek	—	—	—	—
Justin Haley	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
Denny Hamlin	—	—	—	—
Christopher Bell	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 30 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Christopher Bell	8.6	1	+7.6	Moderate
2	Chris Buescher	10.3	2	+8.3	Moderate
3	Ty Gibbs	12.6	3	+9.6	Coinflip
4	Brad Keselowski	12.0	4	+8.0	Coinflip
5	Ryan Blaney	6.8	5	+1.8	High Confidence
6	Ross Chastain	13.8	6	+7.8	Coinflip
7	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	7	+6.8	Coinflip
8	Michael McDowell	15.0	8	+7.0	Coinflip
9	Chase Briscoe	12.6	9	+3.6	Coinflip
10	Tyler Reddick	9.9	10	-0.1	Moderate
11	Denny Hamlin	6.8	11	-4.2	High Confidence
12	Noah Gragson	23.0	12	+11.0	High Confidence
13	Daniel Suarez	15.6	13	+2.6	Coinflip
14	Kyle Larson	8.6	14	-5.4	Moderate
15	Carson Hocevar	14.7	15	-0.3	Coinflip
16	Bubba Wallace	14.0	16	-2.0	Coinflip
17	Todd Gilliland	17.1	17	+0.1	Coinflip
18	William Byron	10.3	18	-7.7	Moderate
19	Chase Elliott	8.3	19	-10.7	High Confidence
20	Alex Bowman	14.0	20	-6.0	Coinflip

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Christopher Bell: has 14 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P12 vs predicted P23. Track history: 13 starts, 17.8 avg finish.

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