O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 24, 2026

The Progress Group 250

Talladega Superspeedway

Laps 94 Distance 250 mi Type superspeedway Coverage CW · 3:30 PM ET

2.66

asphalt

Surface

Green Flag In

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Min

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Chase Elliott has 24 starts at Talladega Superspeedway with 2 wins and a 15.7 average finish.
Tyler Reddick has 19 starts at Talladega Superspeedway with 2 wins and a 15.4 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 18 starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Talladega Superspeedway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the The Progress Group 250 on?

The The Progress Group 250 airs on CW on Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, broadcast from Talladega Superspeedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The The Progress Group 250 green flag is set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 24, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Chase Elliott	Prev Winner	1515	21	2	P4 (2026)
2	Tyler Reddick	Prev Winner	1506	13	1	P14 (2026)
3	Daniel Suarez		1506	18	0	P12 (2026)
4	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Prev Winner	1500	26	2	P6 (2026)
5	Kyle Busch	Prev Winner	1496	27	1	P10 (2026)
6	William Byron		1491	17	0	P35 (2026)
7	Alex Bowman		1491	21	0	P3 (2026)
8	Ryan Blaney	Prev Winner	1487	24	3	P37 (2026)
9	Christopher Bell		1486	13	0	P17 (2026)
10	Chris Buescher		1483	22	0	P2 (2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Chase Elliott Best in Field	Favorite	13.6	11.2%	39.9%	56.7%
2	Tyler Reddick	Favorite	10.4	11.0%	40.0%	57.2%
3	Christopher Bell	Favorite	13.6	10.4%	38.7%	55.9%
4	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	13.9	9.9%	37.9%	54.9%
5	Daniel Suarez	Favorite	13.9	8.9%	35.2%	51.4%
6	William Byron	Favorite	15.1	7.8%	33.9%	51.3%
7	Denny Hamlin	Contender	15.1	7.2%	32.7%	49.6%
8	Alex Bowman	Contender	16.0	5.8%	29.0%	47.9%
9	Chris Buescher	Contender	16.0	5.4%	27.3%	45.7%
10	Bubba Wallace	Contender	16.0	4.5%	24.9%	44.0%
11	Austin Cindric	Contender	16.0	4.5%	24.9%	44.0%
12	Ross Chastain	Contender	17.4	3.7%	19.1%	38.0%
13	Michael McDowell	Contender	18.5	3.1%	17.8%	36.2%
14	Joey Logano	Contender	18.5	3.1%	16.3%	33.8%
15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Mid-Pack	18.5	3.1%	17.4%	35.8%
16	Jimmie Johnson	Mid-Pack	18.9	3.1%	15.7%	33.6%
17	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	17.4	3.0%	18.7%	37.3%
18	Ryan Preece	Mid-Pack	19.4	2.9%	15.2%	30.8%
19	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	20.0	2.3%	14.0%	29.5%
20	Ty Gibbs	Mid-Pack	20.0	2.2%	13.3%	29.1%
21	Kyle Larson	Mid-Pack	20.1	2.1%	12.5%	28.2%
22	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	20.1	1.8%	11.2%	27.1%
23	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	20.5	1.4%	10.5%	26.6%
24	Chase Briscoe	Mid-Pack	20.5	1.2%	9.7%	25.5%
25	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	21.1	1.0%	8.9%	25.0%
26	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	22.9	0.9%	5.3%	17.1%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	21.7	0.9%	6.6%	19.8%
28	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	22.9	0.9%	5.3%	16.6%
29	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	21.1	0.9%	7.1%	20.4%
30	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	22.8	0.9%	5.8%	18.3%
31	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.8	0.9%	5.8%	18.3%
32	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	23.7	0.6%	4.0%	13.4%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	23.4	0.5%	5.0%	14.6%
34	Shane van Gisbergen	Dark Horse	23.4	0.4%	4.5%	15.3%
35	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	24.0	0.4%	3.8%	12.2%
36	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	23.3	0.4%	4.9%	15.9%
37	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	25.5	0.3%	2.5%	8.5%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	25.5	0.3%	2.1%	7.7%
39	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	25.5	0.3%	2.2%	7.8%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	25.5	0.3%	1.9%	7.2%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Talladega Superspeedway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (20 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Ag-Pro 300	Corey Day	+0.154	Hendrick Motorsports	1
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega	Austin Hill	—		48
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega	Austin Hill	—		19
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega	Sammy Smith	—		5
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega	Jesse Love	—		28

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Austin Hill	259
Jesse Love	162
Justin Allgaier	136
Chase Briscoe	97
Daniel Hemric	72

Track Type Tendencies

superspeedway

Superspeedway races at Talladega Superspeedway are defined by pack racing and drafting. Results are less predictable than any other track type; the field stays tight and late-race wrecks reshape the outcome.

Manufacturer strategy and drafting alliances matter as much as raw speed. Longshot winners are more common here than anywhere on the schedule.