3M Performance 400

Michigan International Speedway — June 18, 2006

Kasey Kahne

Winner

129

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kasey Kahne won the 2006 3M Performance 400 at Michigan International Speedway on June 18, 2006, leading 19 of 129 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Kasey Kahne

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	129	—	Running	19	185
2	31	+29	Carl Edwards		129	—	Running	25	175
3	6	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		129	—	Running	3	170
4	10	+6	Greg Biffle		129	—	Running	11	165
5	25	+20	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	129	—	Running	3	160
6	4	-2	Jimmie Johnson		129	—	Running	—	150
7	37	+30	Casey Mears	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	146
8	2	-6	Jeff Gordon		129	—	Running	50	152
9	13	+4	Kurt Busch	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	138
10	19	+9	Kevin Harvick		129	—	Running	—	134
11	12	+1	Jeff Burton		129	—	Running	—	130
12	21	+9	Denny Hamlin		129	—	Running	—	127
13	20	+7	Matt Kenseth		129	—	Running	—	124
14	15	+1	Kyle Busch		129	—	Running	9	126
15	42	+27	Ryan Newman	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	118
16	11	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.		129	—	Running	—	115
17	3	-14	Brian Vickers		129	—	Running	7	117
18	24	+6	Robby Gordon		129	—	Running	—	109
19	30	+11	David Stremme	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	106
20	40	+20	Dale Jarrett		129	—	Running	—	103
21	23	+2	Travis Kvapil		129	—	Running	—	100
22	32	+10	Elliott Sadler		129	—	Running	—	97
23	41	+18	Jamie McMurray		129	—	Running	—	94
24	26	+2	Sterling Marlin		129	—	Running	—	91
25	28	+3	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	88
26	7	-19	Joe Nemechek		129	—	Running	—	85
27	8	-19	Mark Martin		129	—	Running	—	82
28	5	-23	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	79
29	16	-13	Scott Riggs		129	—	Running	—	76
30	33	+3	Dave Blaney	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	73
31	36	+5	Scott Wimmer		129	—	Running	—	70
32	34	+2	Bill Lester	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	67
33	27	-6	Jeff Green		129	—	Running	—	64
34	29	-5	Kevin Lepage	Dodge	129	—	Running	1	66
35	35	—	Kyle Petty	Dodge	129	—	Running	1	63
36	18	-18	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	55
37	43	+6	Mike Skinner		129	—	Running	—	52
38	39	+1	Tony Raines	Dodge	126	—	Running	—	49
39	9	-30	Clint Bowyer		86	—	DNF	—	46
40	14	-26	J.J. Yeley		80	—	DNF	—	43
41	17	-24	Tony Stewart		58	—	DNF	—	40
42	22	-20	Ken Schrader		30	—	DNF	—	37
43	38	-5	Derrike Cope	Dodge	12	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.1 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
7	Casey Mears	16.9	7	+9.9	Coinflip
12	Denny Hamlin	8.2	12	-3.8	High Confidence
14	Kyle Busch	17.0	14	+3.0	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	16	-0.6	Coinflip
40	J.J. Yeley	28.8	40	-11.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kasey Kahne: has 34 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 15.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.

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