Pocono 500

Pocono Raceway — June 11, 2006

Denny Hamlin

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2006 Pocono 500 at Pocono Raceway on June 11, 2006, leading 83 of 200 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2006

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	83	190
2	2	—	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	31	175
3	18	+15	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	6	170
4	4	—	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	19	165
5	25	+20	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	3	160
6	7	+1	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	34	155
7	3	-4	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	1	151
8	17	+9	Scott Riggs		200	—	Running	1	147
9	5	-4	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	11	143
10	10	—	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	134
11	14	+3	Ryan Newman	Dodge	200	—	Running	1	135
12	23	+11	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	127
13	12	-1	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	124
14	11	-3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	121
15	24	+9	J.J. Yeley		200	—	Running	—	118
16	31	+15	Tony Raines	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	115
17	20	+3	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	112
18	8	-10	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	109
19	38	+19	Travis Kvapil		200	—	Running	1	111
20	13	-7	Elliott Sadler		200	—	Running	—	103
21	42	+21	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	8	105
22	9	-13	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	97
23	26	+3	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	94
24	15	-9	Martin Truex, Jr.		199	—	Running	—	91
25	40	+15	Carl Edwards		199	—	Running	1	93
26	32	+6	David Stremme	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	85
27	30	+3	Dave Blaney	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	82
28	36	+8	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	79
29	21	-8	Joe Nemechek		198	—	Running	—	76
30	29	-1	Ken Schrader		197	—	Running	—	73
31	41	+10	Kevin Lepage	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	70
32	34	+2	Jimmy Spencer		197	—	Running	—	67
33	37	+4	Chad Chaffin		196	—	Running	—	64
34	6	-28	Jeff Gordon		189	—	Running	—	61
35	28	-7	Robby Gordon		186	—	Running	—	58
36	35	-1	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	183	—	Running	—	55
37	19	-18	Jeff Green		181	—	Running	—	52
38	27	-11	Dale Jarrett		181	—	Running	—	49
39	39	—	Terry Labonte		118	—	DNF	—	46
40	33	-7	Kyle Petty	Dodge	68	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Mike Garvey	Dodge	67	—	DNF	—	40
42	16	-26	Sterling Marlin		18	—	DNF	—	37
43	22	-21	Casey Mears	Dodge	1	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
10	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	10	+9.9	Moderate
15	J.J. Yeley	28.8	15	+13.8	High Confidence
22	Kyle Busch	17.0	22	-5.0	Coinflip
24	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	24	-8.6	Coinflip
43	Casey Mears	16.9	43	-26.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
J.J. Yeley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P15 vs predicted P29. Track history: 24 starts, 30.7 avg finish.

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