Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 19, 2006

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

203

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2006 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 19, 2006, leading 24 of 203 laps. Casey Mears finished second; Ryan Newman rounded out the podium. The race featured 18 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

18 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Jimmie Johnson		203	—	Running	24	185
2	14	+12	Casey Mears	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	170
3	18	+15	Ryan Newman	Dodge	203	—	Running	23	170
4	3	-1	Elliott Sadler		203	—	Running	5	165
5	15	+10	Tony Stewart		203	—	Running	20	160
6	37	+31	Clint Bowyer		203	—	Running	—	150
7	35	+28	Brian Vickers		203	—	Running	21	151
8	7	-1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		203	—	Running	32	152
9	23	+14	Ken Schrader		203	—	Running	—	138
10	25	+15	Dale Jarrett		203	—	Running	—	134
11	27	+16	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	130
12	10	-2	Mark Martin		203	—	Running	19	132
13	20	+7	Robby Gordon		203	—	Running	—	124
14	28	+14	Kevin Harvick		203	—	Running	1	126
15	11	-4	Matt Kenseth		203	—	Running	28	123
16	19	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.		203	—	Running	—	115
17	43	+26	Terry Labonte		203	—	Running	—	87
18	30	+12	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	109
19	33	+14	Bill Elliott		203	—	Running	1	111
20	42	+22	Kirk Shelmerdine		203	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	Brent Sherman		203	—	Running	—	100
22	34	+12	Dave Blaney	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	97
23	4	-19	Kyle Busch		203	—	Running	5	99
24	24	—	Mike Wallace	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	91
25	31	+6	Kevin Lepage		203	—	Running	1	93
26	2	-24	Jeff Gordon		203	—	Running	1	90
27	40	+13	Travis Kvapil		203	—	Running	1	87
28	32	+4	David Stremme	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	79
29	22	-7	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	76
30	17	-13	Denny Hamlin		203	—	Running	—	73
31	16	-15	Greg Biffle		203	—	Running	1	75
32	1	-31	Jeff Burton		202	—	Running	18	72
33	38	+5	Joe Nemechek		200	—	Running	—	64
34	39	+5	Sterling Marlin		200	—	Running	—	61
35	8	-27	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	58
36	26	-10	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	55
37	6	-31	Jamie McMurray		196	—	Running	1	57
38	13	-25	Kurt Busch	Dodge	187	—	Running	1	54
39	12	-27	Kyle Petty	Dodge	173	—	Running	—	46
40	41	+1	Hermie Sadler		169	—	DNF	—	43
41	36	-5	J.J. Yeley		157	—	DNF	—	40
42	21	-21	Jeff Green		156	—	DNF	—	37
43	5	-38	Carl Edwards		78	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	1	+17.9	Coinflip
2	Casey Mears	18.5	2	+16.5	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	16	+4.1	Coinflip
23	Kyle Busch	15.1	23	-7.9	Coinflip
30	Denny Hamlin	16.0	30	-14.0	Coinflip
41	J.J. Yeley	25.2	41	-15.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 42 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P23 on the day.

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