Sharpie 500

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 26, 2006

Matt Kenseth

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2006 Sharpie 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 26, 2006, leading 117 of 500 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	117	185
2	19	+17	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	1	175
3	40	+37	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	35	170
4	23	+19	Scott Riggs		500	—	Running	—	160
5	13	+8	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	41	160
6	6	—	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	—	150
7	39	+32	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	16	151
8	21	+13	Ryan Newman	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	142
9	2	-7	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	263	148
10	18	+8	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	—	134
11	7	-4	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	130
12	31	+19	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	127
13	17	+4	Ken Schrader		500	—	Running	—	124
14	22	+8	Dave Blaney	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	121
15	32	+17	Dale Jarrett		499	—	Running	—	118
16	29	+13	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	115
17	11	-6	Casey Mears	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	112
18	24	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.		499	—	Running	—	109
19	35	+16	Greg Biffle		499	—	Running	—	106
20	28	+8	Travis Kvapil		499	—	Running	—	103
21	12	-9	Kevin Lepage	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	100
22	5	-17	Tony Stewart		498	—	Running	—	97
23	3	-20	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	94
24	16	-8	Jeff Green		498	—	Running	—	91
25	34	+9	Tony Raines	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	88
26	41	+15	Joe Nemechek		498	—	Running	—	85
27	42	+15	Robby Gordon		498	—	Running	—	82
28	15	-13	Mark Martin		496	—	Running	—	79
29	37	+8	Jamie McMurray		496	—	Running	—	76
30	26	-4	Kenny Wallace		493	—	Running	—	73
31	25	-6	J.J. Yeley		492	—	Running	—	70
32	14	-18	Sterling Marlin		490	—	Running	—	67
33	20	-13	Brian Vickers		487	—	Running	—	64
34	8	-26	Kyle Petty	Dodge	481	—	Running	—	61
35	36	+1	David Stremme	Dodge	468	—	Running	—	58
36	10	-26	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	460	—	Running	—	55
37	1	-36	Kurt Busch	Dodge	446	—	Running	27	57
38	27	-11	Clint Bowyer		415	—	DNF	—	49
39	9	-30	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	395	—	DNF	—	46
40	38	-2	David Gilliland		346	—	DNF	—	43
41	30	-11	Carl Long		256	—	DNF	—	40
42	43	+1	Scott Wimmer		209	—	DNF	—	37
43	33	-10	Derrike Cope	Dodge	7	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	15.6	2	+13.6	Coinflip
6	Denny Hamlin	6.8	6	+0.8	High Confidence
10	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	10	+7.7	Moderate
17	Casey Mears	18.0	17	+1.0	Moderate
18	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	18	-4.2	Coinflip
31	J.J. Yeley	28.1	31	-2.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 57 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.8 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P6 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P16. Track history: 73 starts, 11.7 avg finish.

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