GFS Marketplace 400

Michigan International Speedway — August 20, 2006

Matt Kenseth

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2006 GFS Marketplace 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 20, 2006, leading 87 of 200 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	87	190
2	12	+10	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	12	175
3	33	+30	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	165
4	15	+11	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	160
5	14	+9	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	155
6	17	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	40	155
7	6	-1	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	—	146
8	28	+20	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	142
9	9	—	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	—	138
10	2	-8	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	134
11	5	-6	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	130
12	24	+12	Robby Gordon		200	—	Running	—	127
13	8	-5	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	124
14	23	+9	Scott Riggs		200	—	Running	—	121
15	27	+12	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	118
16	7	-9	Casey Mears	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	115
17	40	+23	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	8	117
18	21	+3	Ken Schrader		200	—	Running	—	109
19	25	+6	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	106
20	36	+16	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	—	103
21	30	+9	Travis Kvapil		200	—	Running	—	100
22	20	-2	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	32	102
23	22	-1	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	94
24	19	-5	Dave Blaney	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	91
25	4	-21	Ryan Newman	Dodge	200	—	Running	8	93
26	13	-13	Joe Nemechek		200	—	Running	—	85
27	35	+8	Jeff Green		200	—	Running	—	82
28	32	+4	David Stremme	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	79
29	10	-19	Sterling Marlin		199	—	Running	—	76
30	18	-12	Martin Truex, Jr.		199	—	Running	—	73
31	42	+11	Kyle Petty	Dodge	199	—	Running	1	75
32	41	+9	Tony Raines	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	67
33	29	-4	Clint Bowyer		197	—	Running	6	69
34	34	—	Derrike Cope	Dodge	197	—	Running	—	61
35	43	+8	Hermie Sadler		197	—	Running	2	63
36	37	+1	Dale Jarrett		166	—	DNF	—	55
37	31	-6	J.J. Yeley		158	—	DNF	—	52
38	26	-12	David Gilliland		145	—	DNF	—	49
39	11	-28	Kyle Busch		132	—	DNF	3	51
40	16	-24	Kurt Busch	Dodge	127	—	DNF	1	48
41	39	-2	Kevin Lepage	Dodge	103	—	DNF	—	40
42	1	-41	Jeff Burton		17	—	DNF	—	37
43	38	-5	Todd Kluever		10	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.9 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
9	Denny Hamlin	8.2	9	-0.8	High Confidence
13	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	13	+6.9	Moderate
16	Casey Mears	16.9	16	+0.9	Coinflip
30	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	30	-14.6	Coinflip
37	J.J. Yeley	28.8	37	-8.2	High Confidence
39	Kyle Busch	17.0	39	-22.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 47 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 11.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P9 on the day.

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