NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 25, 2007

Kyle Busch

Winner

504

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 25, 2007, leading 29 of 504 laps. Jeff Burton finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	20	+19	Kyle Busch		504	—	Running	29	190
2	29	+27	Jeff Burton		504	—	Running	—	170
3	1	-2	Jeff Gordon		504	—	Running	6	170
4	40	+36	Kevin Harvick		504	—	Running	9	165
5	11	+6	Greg Biffle		504	—	Running	—	155
6	9	+3	Jeff Green		504	—	Running	—	150
7	31	+24	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		504	—	Running	—	146
8	18	+10	Clint Bowyer		504	—	Running	—	142
9	5	-4	Jamie McMurray		504	—	Running	—	138
10	16	+6	Casey Mears		504	—	Running	—	134
11	38	+27	Matt Kenseth		504	—	Running	—	130
12	32	+20	Carl Edwards		504	—	Running	—	127
13	33	+20	David Stremme	Dodge	504	—	Running	—	124
14	10	-4	Denny Hamlin		504	—	Running	177	126
15	25	+10	Brian Vickers		504	—	Running	1	123
16	6	-10	Jimmie Johnson		503	—	Running	—	115
17	19	+2	Mike Bliss	Dodge	503	—	Running	—	112
18	14	-4	Ward Burton		502	—	Running	—	109
19	2	-17	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	106
20	26	+6	Kyle Petty	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	103
21	27	+6	Kenny Wallace		501	—	Running	—	100
22	28	+6	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	97
23	7	-16	Dave Blaney		501	—	Running	—	94
24	17	-7	Tony Raines		501	—	Running	—	91
25	12	-13	Regan Smith		501	—	Running	—	88
26	41	+15	David Ragan		501	—	Running	—	85
27	3	-24	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	500	—	Running	5	87
28	15	-13	Ken Schrader		500	—	Running	—	79
29	42	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	499	—	Running	10	81
30	21	-9	Sterling Marlin		499	—	Running	—	73
31	8	-23	Scott Riggs	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	70
32	36	+4	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	67
33	34	+1	Robby Gordon		493	—	Running	—	64
34	23	-11	Jeremy Mayfield		486	—	Running	1	66
35	4	-31	Tony Stewart		479	—	Running	257	68
36	37	+1	J.J. Yeley		475	—	Running	9	60
37	13	-24	Martin Truex, Jr.		475	—	Running	—	52
38	24	-14	Ricky Rudd		453	—	Running	—	49
39	22	-17	Ryan Newman	Dodge	449	—	Running	—	46
40	43	+3	A.J. Allmendinger		413	—	DNF	—	43
41	35	-6	David Gilliland		48	—	DNF	—	40
42	30	-12	Dale Jarrett		42	—	DNF	—	37
43	39	-4	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	21	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
10	Casey Mears	18.0	10	+8.0	Moderate
14	Denny Hamlin	6.8	14	-7.2	High Confidence
16	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	16	+1.7	Moderate
36	J.J. Yeley	28.1	36	-7.9	High Confidence
37	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	37	-23.2	Coinflip
40	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	40	-21.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 73 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P14 on the day.

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