NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — April 1, 2007

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on April 1, 2007, leading 113 of 500 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 1, 2007

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	20	+19	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	113	190
2	3	+1	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	92	175
3	1	-2	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	125	170
4	14	+10	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	10	165
5	8	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	137	165
6	19	+13	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	150
7	7	—	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	11	151
8	26	+18	Scott Riggs	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	142
9	2	-7	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	138
10	33	+23	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	1	139
11	21	+10	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	130
12	12	—	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	127
13	17	+4	Ricky Rudd		500	—	Running	—	124
14	24	+10	Ryan Newman	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	121
15	27	+12	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	118
16	23	+7	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	115
17	9	-8	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	112
18	28	+10	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	109
19	4	-15	Ken Schrader		500	—	Running	—	106
20	11	-9	Tony Raines		500	—	Running	—	103
21	37	+16	Sterling Marlin		500	—	Running	—	100
22	42	+20	Kyle Petty	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	97
23	5	-18	J.J. Yeley		499	—	Running	—	94
24	18	-6	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	498	—	Running	10	96
25	41	+16	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	88
26	36	+10	Regan Smith		498	—	Running	—	85
27	30	+3	Joe Nemechek		497	—	Running	—	82
28	38	+10	Dale Jarrett		496	—	Running	—	79
29	15	-14	Martin Truex, Jr.		496	—	Running	1	81
30	39	+9	Mike Bliss	Dodge	493	—	Running	—	73
31	10	-21	Johnny Sauter		493	—	Running	—	70
32	34	+2	Greg Biffle		492	—	Running	—	67
33	43	+10	David Reutimann		491	—	Running	—	64
34	25	-9	Robby Gordon		490	—	Running	—	61
35	29	-6	David Stremme	Dodge	490	—	Running	—	58
36	32	-4	Jeff Green		487	—	Running	—	55
37	22	-15	Dave Blaney		485	—	Running	—	52
38	40	+2	A.J. Allmendinger		483	—	Running	—	49
39	16	-23	David Gilliland		469	—	Running	—	46
40	13	-27	Jeremy Mayfield		451	—	Running	—	43
41	6	-35	Kevin Harvick		445	—	Running	—	40
42	35	-7	Casey Mears		371	—	DNF	—	37
43	31	-12	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	265	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
3	Denny Hamlin	6.8	3	+3.8	High Confidence
4	Kyle Busch	15.6	4	+11.6	Coinflip
23	J.J. Yeley	28.1	23	+5.1	High Confidence
29	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	29	-15.2	Coinflip
38	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	38	-19.7	Moderate
42	Casey Mears	18.0	42	-24.0	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P3 on the day.

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