AMP Energy 500 at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 5, 2008

Tony Stewart

Winner

190

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2008 AMP Energy 500 at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 5, 2008, leading 24 of 190 laps. Paul Menard finished second; David Ragan rounded out the podium. The race featured 28 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2008

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

28 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	34	+33	Tony Stewart		190	—	Running	24	195
2	5	+3	Paul Menard		190	—	Running	6	175
3	16	+13	David Ragan		190	—	Running	11	170
4	17	+13	Jeff Burton		190	—	Running	8	165
5	35	+30	Clint Bowyer		190	—	Running	—	155
6	32	+26	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	190	—	Running	—	150
7	11	+4	Scott Riggs		190	—	Running	4	151
8	42	+34	Robby Gordon	Dodge	190	—	Running	—	142
9	20	+11	Jimmie Johnson		190	—	Running	3	143
10	40	+30	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	190	—	Running	4	139
11	7	-4	Joe Nemechek		190	—	Running	1	135
12	14	+2	Kenny Wallace		190	—	Running	3	132
13	3	-10	Aric Almirola		190	—	Running	3	129
14	2	-12	Casey Mears		190	—	Running	2	126
15	37	+22	Kyle Busch		190	—	Running	20	123
16	43	+27	Ken Schrader		190	—	Running	—	115
17	23	+6	Terry Labonte	Dodge	190	—	Running	—	112
18	4	-14	Regan Smith		190	—	Running	—	109
19	25	+6	Michael Waltrip		187	—	Running	1	111
20	39	+19	Kevin Harvick		179	—	Running	22	108
21	33	+12	Kurt Busch	Dodge	177	—	Running	2	105
22	29	+7	Dave Blaney		176	—	Running	—	97
23	30	+7	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	175	—	Running	2	99
24	22	-2	Greg Biffle		174	—	Running	2	96
25	13	-12	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	173	—	Running	9	93
26	31	+5	Matt Kenseth		173	—	Running	5	90
27	1	-26	Travis Kvapil		173	—	Running	10	87
28	15	-13	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		173	—	Running	19	84
29	12	-17	Carl Edwards		173	—	Running	2	81
30	6	-24	Mike Wallace		169	—	Running	—	73
31	21	-10	Mike Skinner		160	—	DNF	—	70
32	28	-4	Jamie McMurray		159	—	DNF	3	72
33	27	-6	Jon Wood		154	—	DNF	—	64
34	8	-26	Tony Raines		148	—	DNF	—	61
35	9	-26	Brian Vickers		134	—	DNF	10	63
36	38	+2	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	112	—	DNF	1	60
37	19	-18	David Reutimann		110	—	DNF	—	52
38	26	-12	Jeff Gordon		104	—	DNF	3	54
39	36	-3	Denny Hamlin		98	—	DNF	9	51
40	41	+1	David Gilliland		68	—	DNF	—	43
41	10	-31	Martin Truex, Jr.		68	—	DNF	1	45
42	18	-24	Sterling Marlin		68	—	DNF	—	37
43	24	-19	Ryan Newman	Dodge	48	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.4	9	+10.4	Coinflip
13	Aric Almirola	16.0	13	+3.0	Coinflip
14	Casey Mears	18.5	14	+4.5	Coinflip
15	Kyle Busch	16.0	15	+1.0	Coinflip
20	Kevin Harvick	20.0	20	0.0	Coinflip
39	Denny Hamlin	17.4	39	-21.6	Coinflip
41	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	41	-20.9	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 41 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Aric Almirola: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P19. Track history: 39 starts, 18.5 avg finish.

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