Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 16, 2008

Carl Edwards

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2008 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16, 2008, leading 157 of 267 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Jamie McMurray rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	157	195
2	5	+3	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	1	175
3	7	+4	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	165
4	37	+33	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	16	165
5	27	+22	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	155
6	18	+12	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	150
7	19	+12	Travis Kvapil		267	—	Running	—	146
8	12	+4	Casey Mears		267	—	Running	—	142
9	13	+4	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	11	143
10	10	—	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	134
11	43	+32	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	130
12	15	+3	Bill Elliott		267	—	Running	—	127
13	25	+12	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	124
14	39	+25	Scott Riggs		267	—	Running	—	121
15	30	+15	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	6	123
16	2	-14	Scott Speed		267	—	Running	—	115
17	11	-6	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	267	—	Running	2	117
18	23	+5	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	109
19	8	-11	Kyle Busch		266	—	Running	—	106
20	1	-19	David Reutimann		266	—	Running	1	108
21	29	+8	Ryan Newman	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	100
22	33	+11	Dave Blaney		266	—	Running	—	97
23	31	+8	Brad Keselowski		266	—	Running	—	94
24	6	-18	David Ragan		266	—	Running	—	91
25	3	-22	Matt Kenseth		266	—	Running	73	93
26	14	-12	Robby Gordon	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	85
27	34	+7	David Gilliland		266	—	Running	—	82
28	24	-4	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	79
29	21	-8	Sterling Marlin		266	—	Running	—	76
30	36	+6	Paul Menard		266	—	Running	—	73
31	9	-22	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	70
32	20	-12	Brian Vickers		265	—	Running	—	67
33	35	+2	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	64
34	26	-8	Regan Smith		265	—	Running	—	61
35	40	+5	Aric Almirola		265	—	Running	—	58
36	16	-20	Joe Nemechek		264	—	Running	—	55
37	32	-5	Tony Raines		264	—	Running	—	52
38	42	+4	Michael Waltrip		264	—	Running	—	49
39	28	-11	Chad McCumbee	Dodge	263	—	Running	—	46
40	17	-23	Jeff Burton		259	—	Running	—	43
41	22	-19	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		246	—	Running	—	40
42	41	-1	Marcos Ambrose		222	—	DNF	—	37
43	38	-5	Kurt Busch	Dodge	207	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kevin Harvick	11.2	2	+9.2	Moderate
8	Casey Mears	17.1	8	+9.1	Coinflip
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	10	+5.4	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	11	+7.3	Coinflip
13	Denny Hamlin	8.2	13	-4.8	High Confidence
15	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
19	Kyle Busch	17.0	19	-2.0	Coinflip
21	Ryan Newman	21.4	21	+0.4	High Confidence
23	Brad Keselowski	11.2	23	-11.8	Coinflip
35	Aric Almirola	15.4	35	-19.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 20 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P13 on the day.

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