NSCS at Bristol pres. by Pennzoil Platinum

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 23, 2008

Carl Edwards

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2008 NSCS at Bristol pres. by Pennzoil Platinum at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 23, 2008, leading 84 of 500 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

3 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	84	190
2	9	+7	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	415	180
3	21	+18	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	—	165
4	6	+2	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	160
5	3	-2	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	1	160
6	11	+5	Ryan Newman	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	150
7	22	+15	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	146
8	28	+20	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	142
9	25	+16	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	138
10	27	+17	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	134
11	14	+3	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	—	130
12	41	+29	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	127
13	23	+10	Aric Almirola		500	—	Running	—	124
14	4	-10	Regan Smith		500	—	Running	—	121
15	19	+4	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	118
16	16	—	Paul Menard		499	—	Running	—	115
17	20	+3	Tony Raines		499	—	Running	—	112
18	40	+22	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		498	—	Running	—	109
19	39	+20	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	106
20	26	+6	Brian Vickers		498	—	Running	—	103
21	7	-14	Ken Schrader		498	—	Running	—	100
22	15	-7	David Gilliland		498	—	Running	—	97
23	37	+14	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	94
24	32	+8	Travis Kvapil		498	—	Running	—	91
25	2	-23	David Reutimann		497	—	Running	—	88
26	5	-21	Bill Elliott		497	—	Running	—	85
27	38	+11	Scott Riggs		496	—	Running	—	82
28	33	+5	Mike Skinner		496	—	Running	—	79
29	43	+14	Joe Nemechek		494	—	Running	—	76
30	42	+12	Michael Waltrip		492	—	Running	—	73
31	29	-2	Kyle Petty	Dodge	491	—	Running	—	70
32	10	-22	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	490	—	Running	—	67
33	34	+1	Jimmie Johnson		482	—	Running	—	64
34	8	-26	A.J. Allmendinger		400	—	DNF	—	61
35	12	-23	Martin Truex, Jr.		396	—	DNF	—	58
36	30	-6	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	383	—	DNF	—	55
37	35	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	297	—	DNF	—	52
38	36	-2	Dave Blaney		279	—	DNF	—	49
39	31	-8	Robby Gordon	Dodge	227	—	DNF	—	46
40	13	-27	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	215	—	DNF	—	43
41	17	-24	Casey Mears		214	—	DNF	—	40
42	18	-24	Jeff Burton		195	—	DNF	—	37
43	24	-19	Sterling Marlin		184	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	14.0	2	+12.0	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	8.6	3	+5.6	Moderate
4	Kevin Harvick	10.3	4	+6.3	Moderate
6	Ryan Newman	23.1	6	+17.1	High Confidence
13	Aric Almirola	15.0	13	+2.0	Coinflip
33	Jimmie Johnson	18.3	33	-14.7	Moderate
34	A.J. Allmendinger	19.0	34	-15.0	Moderate
35	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	35	-21.0	Coinflip
41	Casey Mears	17.7	41	-23.3	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 38 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.0 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Ryan Newman: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 47 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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