NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — August 17, 2008

Carl Edwards

Winner

131

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 17, 2008, leading 56 of 131 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	27	+26	Carl Edwards		131	—	Running	56	195
2	11	+9	Kyle Busch		131	—	Running	—	175
3	9	+6	Greg Biffle		131	—	Running	1	165
4	1	-3	Brian Vickers		131	—	Running	18	151
5	16	+11	David Ragan		131	—	Running	—	170
6	4	-2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		131	—	Running	43	99
7	28	+21	Jeff Burton		131	—	Running	—	135
8	3	-5	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	138
9	14	+5	Matt Kenseth		131	—	Running	—	155
10	37	+27	Denny Hamlin		131	—	Running	—	46
11	38	+27	Kevin Harvick		131	—	Running	—	142
12	15	+3	Mark Martin		131	—	Running	—	150
13	7	-6	David Reutimann		131	—	Running	—	121
14	13	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	55
15	18	+3	Jamie McMurray		131	—	Running	—	134
16	25	+9	Martin Truex, Jr.		131	—	Running	—	115
17	26	+9	Travis Kvapil		131	—	Running	—	124
18	40	+22	David Gilliland		131	—	Running	—	85
19	32	+13	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	43
20	42	+22	Michael Waltrip		131	—	Running	—	106
21	21	—	Tony Stewart		131	—	Running	—	127
22	35	+13	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	82
23	10	-13	Scott Riggs		131	—	Running	1	123
24	20	-4	Ryan Newman	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	100
25	29	+4	Casey Mears		131	—	Running	—	109
26	41	+15	Clint Bowyer		131	—	Running	—	103
27	23	-4	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	97
28	33	+5	A.J. Allmendinger		131	—	Running	—	79
29	36	+7	Paul Menard		131	—	Running	—	91
30	8	-22	Regan Smith		131	—	Running	—	76
31	6	-25	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	73
32	19	-13	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	131	—	Running	—	88
33	2	-31	Jimmie Johnson		130	—	Running	12	117
34	30	-4	Tony Raines		130	—	Running	—	70
35	17	-18	Terry Labonte	Dodge	130	—	Running	—	67
36	22	-14	Mike Skinner		130	—	Running	—	58
37	34	-3	Joe Nemechek		130	—	Running	—	61
38	31	-7	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	130	—	Running	—	64
39	12	-27	Robby Gordon	Dodge	129	—	Running	—	52
40	43	+3	Brad Coleman		129	—	Running	—	49
41	5	-36	Jeff Gordon		96	—	DNF	—	37
42	24	-18	Dave Blaney		83	—	DNF	—	40
43	39	-4	Marcos Ambrose		17	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
10	Denny Hamlin	8.2	10	-1.8	High Confidence
11	Kevin Harvick	11.2	11	+0.2	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	16	-0.6	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	17.1	25	-7.9	Coinflip
28	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	28	-9.7	Moderate
33	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	33	-13.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 32 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 55 starts, 12.2 avg finish.

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