AMP Energy Juice 500 at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway, November 1, 2009

Jamie McMurray

Winner

191

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jamie McMurray won the 2009 AMP Energy Juice 500 at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on November 1, 2009, leading 32 of 191 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 25 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2009

Winner

Jamie McMurray

Leaders

25 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	22	+21	Jamie McMurray		191	—	Running	32	195
2	11	+9	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	191	—	Running	1	175
3	20	+17	Joey Logano		191	—	Running	1	170
4	8	+4	Greg Biffle		191	—	Running	—	160
5	18	+13	Jeff Burton		191	—	Running	4	160
6	1	-5	Jimmie Johnson		191	—	Running	—	150
7	33	+26	Michael Waltrip		191	—	Running	2	151
8	36	+28	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	191	—	Running	7	147
9	26	+17	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	191	—	Running	12	143
10	37	+27	Bobby Labonte		191	—	Running	—	134
11	24	+13	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		191	—	Running	9	135
12	15	+3	Clint Bowyer		191	—	Running	—	127
13	12	-1	Brian Vickers		191	—	Running	—	124
14	10	-4	Carl Edwards		191	—	Running	2	126
15	13	-2	Kyle Busch		191	—	Running	4	123
16	29	+13	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	191	—	Running	—	115
17	28	+11	David Ragan		191	—	Running	—	112
18	41	+23	Robert Richardson Jr.		191	—	Running	—	109
19	5	-14	Juan Pablo Montoya		191	—	Running	3	111
20	3	-17	Jeff Gordon		191	—	Running	12	108
21	21	—	Kevin Harvick		191	—	Running	28	105
22	30	+8	David Stremme	Dodge	191	—	Running	10	102
23	35	+12	John Andretti		191	—	Running	2	99
24	14	-10	Matt Kenseth		191	—	Running	—	91
25	19	-6	Casey Mears		191	—	Running	20	93
26	16	-10	David Reutimann		191	—	Running	6	90
27	38	+11	Scott Speed		190	—	Running	—	82
28	2	-26	Mark Martin		190	—	Running	7	84
29	42	+13	Max Papis		190	—	Running	—	76
30	6	-24	Kurt Busch	Dodge	189	—	Running	7	78
31	23	-8	Martin Truex, Jr.		189	—	Running	1	75
32	34	+2	Robby Gordon		189	—	Running	3	72
33	25	-8	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	189	—	Running	—	64
34	17	-17	Marcos Ambrose		188	—	Running	3	66
35	4	-31	Tony Stewart		183	—	Running	1	63
36	7	-29	Ryan Newman		183	—	Running	3	60
37	31	-6	Erik Darnell		167	—	Running	—	52
38	9	-29	Denny Hamlin		137	—	DNF	11	54
39	43	+4	Regan Smith		99	—	DNF	—	46
40	27	-13	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	44	—	DNF	—	43
41	40	-1	Dave Blaney		12	—	DNF	—	40
42	32	-10	Paul Menard		4	—	DNF	—	37
43	39	-4	Joe Nemechek		4	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Joey Logano	18.5	3	+15.5	Coinflip
6	Jimmie Johnson	20.0	6	+14.0	Coinflip
8	Brad Keselowski	18.5	8	+10.5	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	20.0	25	-5.0	Coinflip
31	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.5	31	-10.5	Coinflip
33	A.J. Allmendinger	22.9	33	-10.1	High Confidence
38	Denny Hamlin	15.1	38	-22.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jamie McMurray: has 38 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 21.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 44 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P38 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P19. Track history: 42 starts, 18.2 avg finish.

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