NSCS at Watkins Glen pres. by GoDaddy.com

Watkins Glen International — August 9, 2009

Tony Stewart

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2009 NSCS at Watkins Glen pres. by GoDaddy.com at Watkins Glen International on August 9, 2009, leading 34 of 90 laps. Marcos Ambrose finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2009

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Tony Stewart		90	—	Running	34	195
2	4	+2	Marcos Ambrose		90	—	Running	9	175
3	33	+30	Carl Edwards		90	—	Running	—	165
4	8	+4	Kyle Busch		90	—	Running	15	165
5	7	+2	Greg Biffle		90	—	Running	—	155
6	10	+4	Juan Pablo Montoya		90	—	Running	—	150
7	2	-5	Kurt Busch	Dodge	90	—	Running	23	151
8	16	+8	Max Papis		90	—	Running	—	142
9	38	+29	Clint Bowyer		90	—	Running	—	138
10	3	-7	Denny Hamlin		90	—	Running	—	134
11	20	+9	Brian Vickers		90	—	Running	—	130
12	1	-11	Jimmie Johnson		90	—	Running	4	132
13	18	+5	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	124
14	42	+28	Matt Kenseth		90	—	Running	—	121
15	11	-4	Casey Mears		90	—	Running	—	118
16	35	+19	Joey Logano		90	—	Running	—	115
17	12	-5	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	112
18	22	+4	Robby Gordon		90	—	Running	—	109
19	14	-5	Paul Menard		90	—	Running	—	106
20	27	+7	Bobby Labonte		90	—	Running	—	103
21	6	-15	Ryan Newman		90	—	Running	—	100
22	26	+4	Scott Speed		90	—	Running	4	102
23	28	+5	Mark Martin		90	—	Running	—	94
24	40	+16	David Ragan		90	—	Running	—	91
25	25	—	David Reutimann		90	—	Running	—	88
26	5	-21	David Stremme	Dodge	90	—	Running	1	90
27	15	-12	Andy Lally		90	—	Running	—	82
28	23	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	79
29	37	+8	Ron Fellows	Dodge	84	—	Running	—	76
30	34	+4	John Andretti		84	—	Running	—	73
31	29	-2	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	78	—	Running	—	70
32	19	-13	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	78	—	Running	—	67
33	17	-16	Patrick Carpentier		78	—	Running	—	64
34	9	-25	Boris Said		74	—	DNF	—	61
35	21	-14	Kevin Harvick		68	—	DNF	—	58
36	36	—	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	61	—	DNF	—	55
37	31	-6	Jeff Gordon		61	—	DNF	—	52
38	30	-8	Jeff Burton		61	—	DNF	—	49
39	32	-7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		60	—	DNF	—	46
40	24	-16	Jamie McMurray		58	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	P.J. Jones		13	—	DNF	—	40
42	41	-1	Dave Blaney		11	—	DNF	—	37
43	43	—	Tony Ave		8	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Kyle Busch	13.0	4	+9.0	Coinflip
10	Denny Hamlin	16.7	10	+6.7	Moderate
12	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	12	+4.7	Moderate
13	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	13	+3.5	Coinflip
15	Casey Mears	16.7	15	+1.7	Moderate
16	Joey Logano	12.7	16	-3.3	Moderate
28	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	28	-11.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 17 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 9.6 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Joey Logano: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P16 on the day.

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