Bank of America 500 at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 17, 2009

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2009 Bank of America 500 at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 17, 2009, leading 92 of 334 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jimmie Johnson		334	—	Running	92	195
2	4	+2	Matt Kenseth		334	—	Running	45	175
3	3	—	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	334	—	Running	67	170
4	9	+5	Jeff Gordon		334	—	Running	64	165
5	12	+7	Joey Logano		334	—	Running	—	155
6	11	+5	Clint Bowyer		334	—	Running	—	150
7	42	+35	Casey Mears		334	—	Running	—	146
8	10	+2	Kyle Busch		334	—	Running	—	142
9	25	+16	Martin Truex, Jr.		334	—	Running	—	138
10	15	+5	Kurt Busch	Dodge	334	—	Running	2	139
11	6	-5	Ryan Newman		334	—	Running	—	130
12	8	-4	Brad Keselowski		334	—	Running	—	127
13	5	-8	Tony Stewart		334	—	Running	—	124
14	34	+20	Jeff Burton		334	—	Running	—	121
15	21	+6	David Reutimann		334	—	Running	—	118
16	23	+7	Greg Biffle		334	—	Running	—	115
17	2	-15	Mark Martin		334	—	Running	6	117
18	32	+14	Kevin Harvick		334	—	Running	—	109
19	27	+8	David Stremme	Dodge	334	—	Running	—	106
20	29	+9	David Ragan		334	—	Running	—	103
21	37	+16	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	334	—	Running	—	100
22	13	-9	Marcos Ambrose		333	—	Running	—	97
23	26	+3	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	333	—	Running	—	94
24	7	-17	Mike Bliss		333	—	Running	—	91
25	14	-11	David Gilliland		333	—	Running	—	88
26	38	+12	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	332	—	Running	—	85
27	31	+4	Paul Menard		332	—	Running	—	82
28	16	-12	Scott Speed		332	—	Running	—	79
29	36	+7	Bill Elliott		332	—	Running	—	76
30	19	-11	Robby Gordon		332	—	Running	—	73
31	24	-7	Bobby Labonte		331	—	Running	—	70
32	33	+1	Michael Waltrip		331	—	Running	3	72
33	20	-13	Jamie McMurray		331	—	Running	—	64
34	30	-4	Brian Vickers		330	—	Running	—	61
35	18	-17	Juan Pablo Montoya		330	—	Running	—	58
36	41	+5	John Andretti		330	—	Running	—	55
37	43	+6	Terry Labonte		329	—	Running	1	57
38	39	+1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		304	—	Running	—	49
39	28	-11	Carl Edwards		299	—	Running	—	46
40	22	-18	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	298	—	Running	—	43
41	40	-1	Max Papis		286	—	Running	—	40
42	17	-25	Denny Hamlin		192	—	DNF	54	42
43	35	-8	Joe Nemechek		26	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
5	Joey Logano	14.7	5	+9.7	Coinflip
7	Casey Mears	16.9	7	+9.9	Coinflip
8	Kyle Busch	17.0	8	+9.0	Coinflip
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	9	+6.4	Coinflip
12	Brad Keselowski	11.2	12	-0.8	Moderate
23	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	23	-4.7	Moderate
42	Denny Hamlin	8.2	42	-33.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 37 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 19.1 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P42 on the day.

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